Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic head-to-head
Boston Celtics 81% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Celtics:
- Defensive Efficiency. Celtics defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Magic (123.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Celtics are 3-0 at home this season; Magic are 1-1 on the road
- ELO Rating. Celtics ELO 1636 vs Magic ELO 1517 (diff: +119)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 66% (−15)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 77% (−4)
- If the rating edge were neutral: BOS 78% (−3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 79% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Magic at Celtics
The Magic visit the Celtics at TD Garden in Boston, MA in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Celtics a 81% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Magic to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Celtics (high): Celtics defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Magic (123.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Celtics (medium): Celtics are 3-0 at home this season; Magic are 1-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Celtics (low): Celtics ELO 1636 vs Magic ELO 1517 (diff: +119)
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Celtics
- ELO RatingFavors Boston Celtics
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Celtics defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Magic (123.5 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Celtics offense (110.0 PPG) outpaces Magic (109.0 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Celtics turnover differential (+0) vs Magic (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Magic
Celtics
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Boston Celtics
- Previous game54%BOS win probability
- Next game51%BOS win probability
Orlando Magic
- Previous game87%MIN win probability
- Next game80%PHI win probability
Other games on Nov 16, 2026
- 77%CLE win probability
- 64%MEM win probability
- 78%PHI win probability
- 84%HOU win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Celtics has a 81% win probability, while Magic has a 19% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.