Houston Rockets at Miami Heat
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat head-to-head
Houston Rockets 84% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Rockets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Rockets defense (111.3 Opp PPG) better than Heat (124.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Rockets offense (121.0 PPG) outpaces Heat (109.0 PPG)
- ELO Rating. Heat ELO 1471 vs Rockets ELO 1582 (diff: -111)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 71% (−13)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 71% (−13)
- If the rating edge were neutral: HOU 82% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Rockets at Heat
The Rockets visit the Heat at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Rockets a 84% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Heat to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Rockets (high): Rockets defense (111.3 Opp PPG) better than Heat (124.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Rockets (high): Rockets offense (121.0 PPG) outpaces Heat (109.0 PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Rockets (low): Heat ELO 1471 vs Rockets ELO 1582 (diff: -111)
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- ELO RatingFavors Houston Rockets
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Rockets defense (111.3 Opp PPG) better than Heat (124.7 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Rockets offense (121.0 PPG) outpaces Heat (109.0 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Heat turnover differential (+0) vs Rockets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Rockets
Heat
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Miami Heat
- Previous game60%MIA win probability
- Next game55%MIA win probability
Houston Rockets
- Previous game91%ATL win probability
- Next game86%HOU win probability
Other games on Nov 16, 2026
- 77%CLE win probability
- 81%BOS win probability
- 64%MEM win probability
- 78%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Heat has a 16% win probability, while Rockets has a 84% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL.