Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans head-to-head
New Orleans Pelicans 53% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Pelicans:
- Offensive Efficiency. Pelicans offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Grizzlies (117.0 PPG)
- ELO Rating. Pelicans ELO 1432 vs Grizzlies ELO 1402 (diff: +29)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NOP 34% (−19)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NOP 72% (+19)
- If the rating edge were neutral: NOP 52% (−1)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NOP 53% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Grizzlies at Pelicans
The Grizzlies visit the Pelicans at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Pelicans a 53% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Grizzlies to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Pelicans (high): Pelicans offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Grizzlies (117.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Grizzlies (high): Grizzlies defense (105.5 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (128.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Pelicans (low): Pelicans ELO 1432 vs Grizzlies ELO 1402 (diff: +29)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- ELO RatingFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Pelicans offense (124.7 PPG) outpaces Grizzlies (117.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Grizzlies defense (105.5 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (128.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Pelicans turnover differential (+0) vs Grizzlies (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Grizzlies
Pelicans
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
New Orleans Pelicans
- Previous game52%DEN win probability
- Next game51%NOP win probability
Memphis Grizzlies
- Previous game86%MEM win probability
- Next game85%MEM win probability
Other games on Nov 13, 2026
- 61%ORL win probability
- 51%IND win probability
- 79%CLE win probability
- 84%ATL win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Pelicans has a 53% win probability, while Grizzlies has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA.