Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat head-to-head
Cleveland Cavaliers 79% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Cavaliers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Cavaliers offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Heat (109.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Cavaliers defense (117.5 Opp PPG) better than Heat (124.7 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Heat ELO 1471 vs Cavaliers ELO 1518 (diff: -46)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 63% (−16)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 63% (−16)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 83% (+4)
- If the rating edge were neutral: CLE 78% (−1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Cavaliers at Heat
The Cavaliers visit the Heat at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Cavaliers a 79% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Heat to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Cavaliers (high): Cavaliers offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Heat (109.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Cavaliers (high): Cavaliers defense (117.5 Opp PPG) better than Heat (124.7 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Heat (medium): Heat are 2-3 at home this season; Cavaliers are 0-2 on the road
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Heat
- ELO RatingFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Cavaliers offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Heat (109.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Cavaliers defense (117.5 Opp PPG) better than Heat (124.7 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Heat turnover differential (+0) vs Cavaliers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Cavaliers
Heat
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Miami Heat
- Previous game60%MIA win probability
- Next game84%DET win probability
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Previous game60%CLE win probability
- Next game71%CLE win probability
Other games on Nov 13, 2026
- 61%ORL win probability
- 51%IND win probability
- 84%ATL win probability
- 53%NOP win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Heat has a 21% win probability, while Cavaliers has a 79% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL.