Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks head-to-head
Boston Celtics 76% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Celtics:
- Defensive Efficiency. Celtics defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.3 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Celtics ELO 1636 vs Mavericks ELO 1410 (diff: +226)
- Home Field Advantage. Celtics are 3-0 at home this season; Mavericks are 2-1 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 58% (−18)
- If the rating edge were neutral: BOS 69% (−7)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 81% (+5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 71% (−5)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Mavericks at Celtics
The Mavericks visit the Celtics at TD Garden in Boston, MA in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Celtics a 76% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Mavericks to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Celtics (high): Celtics defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.3 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Celtics (medium): Celtics ELO 1636 vs Mavericks ELO 1410 (diff: +226)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Mavericks (medium): Mavericks offense (112.3 PPG) outpaces Celtics (110.0 PPG)
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- ELO RatingFavors Boston Celtics
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Celtics
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Celtics defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.3 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Mavericks offense (112.3 PPG) outpaces Celtics (110.0 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Celtics turnover differential (+0) vs Mavericks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Mavericks
Celtics
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Boston Celtics
- Previous game54%BOS win probability
- Next game81%BOS win probability
Dallas Mavericks
- Previous game56%DAL win probability
- Next game69%DAL win probability
Other games on Nov 15, 2026
- 82%PHI win probability
- 81%LAL win probability
- 83%LAC win probability
- 71%SAS win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Celtics has a 76% win probability, while Mavericks has a 24% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.