Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors head-to-head
Dallas Mavericks 69% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Mavericks:
- Defensive Efficiency. Mavericks defense (118.3 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Mavericks are 0-4 at home this season; Warriors are 1-4 on the road
- Offensive Efficiency. Mavericks offense (112.3 PPG) outpaces Warriors (111.7 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DAL 55% (−14)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DAL 67% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DAL 67% (−2)
- If the rating edge were neutral: DAL 71% (+2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Warriors at Mavericks
The Warriors visit the Mavericks at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Mavericks a 69% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Warriors to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Mavericks (high): Mavericks defense (118.3 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Mavericks (low): Mavericks are 0-4 at home this season; Warriors are 1-4 on the road
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Mavericks (low): Mavericks offense (112.3 PPG) outpaces Warriors (111.7 PPG)
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Dallas Mavericks
- ELO RatingFavors Golden State Warriors
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Mavericks defense (118.3 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (123.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Mavericks offense (112.3 PPG) outpaces Warriors (111.7 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Mavericks turnover differential (+0) vs Warriors (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Warriors
Mavericks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Dallas Mavericks
- Previous game56%DAL win probability
- Next game82%LAC win probability
Golden State Warriors
- Previous game62%GSW win probability
- Next game85%MEM win probability
Other games on Nov 18, 2026
- 55%MIA win probability
- 80%PHI win probability
- 66%MEM win probability
- 86%HOU win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Mavericks has a 69% win probability, while Warriors has a 31% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.