Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies head-to-head
Memphis Grizzlies 85% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Grizzlies:
- Defensive Efficiency. Grizzlies defense (105.5 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Grizzlies offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Warriors (111.7 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Grizzlies are 2-1 at home this season; Warriors are 1-4 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 72% (−13)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 74% (−11)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MEM 82% (−3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: MEM 86% (+1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Warriors at Grizzlies
The Warriors visit the Grizzlies at FedExForum in Memphis, TN in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Grizzlies a 85% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Warriors to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Grizzlies (high): Grizzlies defense (105.5 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (123.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Grizzlies (high): Grizzlies offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Warriors (111.7 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Grizzlies (medium): Grizzlies are 2-1 at home this season; Warriors are 1-4 on the road
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- ELO RatingFavors Golden State Warriors
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Grizzlies defense (105.5 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (123.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Grizzlies offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Warriors (111.7 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Grizzlies turnover differential (+0) vs Warriors (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Warriors
Grizzlies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Memphis Grizzlies
- Previous game86%MEM win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Golden State Warriors
- Previous game62%GSW win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Other games on Nov 19, 2026
- 86%POR win probability
- 86%MIN win probability
- 63%LAC win probability
No other game on this slate
Frequently Asked Questions
Grizzlies has a 85% win probability, while Warriors has a 15% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at FedExForum in Memphis, TN.