MLB report card: week of 2026-06-08 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
54.4%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
49 of 90 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Mariners at NationalsWSH 65.3% pre-game — final WSH 2–SEA 10
- Cubs at GiantsSF 57.4% pre-game — final SF 1–CHC 5
- Diamondbacks at RedsCIN 57.1% pre-game — final CIN 2–ARI 5
- Phillies at BrewersMIL 56.9% pre-game — final MIL 8–PHI 9
- Reds at PadresSD 56.8% pre-game — final SD 3–CIN 5
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Mariners at NationalsWSH 57.9% pre-game — final WSH 10–SEA 1
- Mariners at NationalsWSH 57.9% pre-game — final WSH 8–SEA 3
- Tigers at GuardiansCLE 57.7% pre-game — final CLE 3–DET 2
- Phillies at BrewersMIL 56.9% pre-game — final MIL 4–PHI 0
- Reds at PadresSD 56.8% pre-game — final SD 5–CIN 4
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants at Cubs Mon, Jun 8 | CHC 54.0% · SF 46.0% | CHC 1–SF 2 | Miss |
| Mariners at Orioles Mon, Jun 8 | BAL 54.8% · SEA 45.2% | BAL 3–SEA 6 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Rays Mon, Jun 8 | TB 56.1% · BOS 43.9% | TB 3–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Guardians Mon, Jun 8 | CLE 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CLE 5–NYY 7 | Miss |
| Phillies at Blue Jays Mon, Jun 8 | TOR 56.5% · PHI 43.5% | TOR 2–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Angels Tue, Jun 9 | LAA 54.3% · HOU 45.7% | LAA 4–HOU 5 | Miss |
| Reds at Padres Tue, Jun 9 | SD 56.8% · CIN 43.2% | SD 6–CIN 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Giants Tue, Jun 9 | SF 53.2% · WSH 46.8% | SF 3–WSH 4 | Miss |
| Brewers at Athletics Tue, Jun 9 | OAK 53.1% · MIL 46.9% | OAK 14–MIL 15 | Miss |
| Mariners at Orioles Tue, Jun 9 | BAL 54.8% · SEA 45.2% | BAL 5–SEA 6 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Pirates Tue, Jun 9 | PIT 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | PIT 3–LAD 12 | Miss |
| Twins at Tigers Tue, Jun 9 | DET 54.0% · MIN 46.0% | DET 10–MIN 4 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Rays Tue, Jun 9 | TB 56.1% · BOS 43.9% | TB 4–BOS 3 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Marlins Tue, Jun 9 | MIA 55.7% · ARI 44.3% | MIA 10–ARI 6 | Hit |
| Yankees at Guardians Tue, Jun 9 | CLE 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CLE 2–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Phillies at Blue Jays Tue, Jun 9 | TOR 56.5% · PHI 43.5% | TOR 3–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Mets Tue, Jun 9 | NYM 54.9% · STL 45.1% | NYM 0–STL 7 | Miss |
| Braves at Chicago White Sox Tue, Jun 9 | CWS 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | CWS 6–ATL 5 | Hit |
| Rangers at Royals Tue, Jun 9 | KC 54.2% · TEX 45.8% | KC 5–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Cubs at Rockies Wed, Jun 10 | COL 55.2% · CHC 44.8% | COL 7–CHC 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Angels Wed, Jun 10 | LAA 54.3% · HOU 45.7% | LAA 10–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Padres Wed, Jun 10 | SD 56.8% · CIN 43.2% | SD 3–CIN 5 | Miss |
| Nationals at Giants Wed, Jun 10 | SF 53.2% · WSH 46.8% | SF 3–WSH 6 | Miss |
| Brewers at Athletics Wed, Jun 10 | OAK 53.1% · MIL 46.9% | OAK 7–MIL 5 | Hit |
| Yankees at Guardians Wed, Jun 10 | CLE 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CLE 4–NYY 8 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Rays Wed, Jun 10 | TB 56.1% · BOS 43.9% | TB 7–BOS 5 | Hit |
| Nationals at Giants Wed, Jun 10 | SF 53.2% · WSH 46.8% | SF 11–WSH 10 | Hit |
| Reds at Padres Wed, Jun 10 | SD 56.8% · CIN 43.2% | SD 5–CIN 4 | Hit |
| Mariners at Orioles Wed, Jun 10 | BAL 54.8% · SEA 45.2% | BAL 7–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Tigers Wed, Jun 10 | DET 54.0% · MIN 46.0% | DET 4–MIN 6 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Marlins Wed, Jun 10 | MIA 55.7% · ARI 44.3% | MIA 8–ARI 0 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Pirates Wed, Jun 10 | PIT 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | PIT 9–LAD 8 | Hit |
| Phillies at Blue Jays Wed, Jun 10 | TOR 56.5% · PHI 43.5% | TOR 4–PHI 7 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Mets Wed, Jun 10 | NYM 54.9% · STL 45.1% | NYM 2–STL 9 | Miss |
| Braves at Chicago White Sox Wed, Jun 10 | CWS 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | CWS 2–ATL 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Royals Wed, Jun 10 | KC 54.2% · TEX 45.8% | KC 4–TEX 6 | Miss |
| Cubs at Rockies Thu, Jun 11 | COL 55.2% · CHC 44.8% | COL 3–CHC 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Athletics Thu, Jun 11 | OAK 53.1% · MIL 46.9% | OAK 4–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Angels Thu, Jun 11 | LAA 54.3% · HOU 45.7% | LAA 3–HOU 2 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Marlins Thu, Jun 11 | MIA 55.7% · ARI 44.3% | MIA 2–ARI 0 | Hit |
| Twins at Tigers Thu, Jun 11 | DET 54.0% · MIN 46.0% | DET 11–MIN 0 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Mets Thu, Jun 11 | NYM 54.9% · STL 45.1% | NYM 5–STL 4 | Hit |
| Rangers at Royals Thu, Jun 11 | KC 54.2% · TEX 45.8% | KC 2–TEX 4 | Miss |
| Cubs at Rockies Thu, Jun 11 | COL 55.2% · CHC 44.8% | COL 3–CHC 9 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Pirates Thu, Jun 11 | PIT 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | PIT 6–LAD 8 | Miss |
| Mariners at Orioles Thu, Jun 11 | BAL 54.8% · SEA 45.2% | BAL 7–SEA 5 | Hit |
| Marlins at Pirates Fri, Jun 12 | PIT 55.3% · MIA 44.7% | PIT 3–MIA 8 | Miss |
| Mariners at Nationals Fri, Jun 12 | WSH 65.3% · SEA 34.7% | WSH 2–SEA 10 | Miss |
| Padres at Orioles Fri, Jun 12 | BAL 50.7% · SD 49.3% | BAL 7–SD 3 | Hit |
| Tigers at Guardians Fri, Jun 12 | CLE 57.7% · DET 42.3% | CLE 3–DET 2 | Hit |
| Rangers at Red Sox Fri, Jun 12 | BOS 55.4% · TEX 44.6% | BOS 10–TEX 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Reds Fri, Jun 12 | CIN 57.1% · ARI 42.9% | CIN 2–ARI 5 | Miss |
| Braves at Mets Fri, Jun 12 | NYM 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | NYM 7–ATL 5 | Hit |
| Yankees at Blue Jays Fri, Jun 12 | TOR 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TOR 8–NYY 5 | Hit |
| Phillies at Brewers Fri, Jun 12 | MIL 55.2% · PHI 44.8% | MIL 6–PHI 0 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Chicago White Sox Fri, Jun 12 | CWS 56.6% · LAD 43.4% | CWS 8–LAD 2 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Twins Sat, Jun 13 | MIN 55.8% · STL 44.2% | MIN 9–STL 8 | Hit |
| Astros at Royals Sat, Jun 13 | KC 54.5% · HOU 45.5% | KC 8–HOU 10 | Miss |
| Rays at Angels Sat, Jun 13 | LAA 53.8% · TB 46.2% | LAA 4–TB 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Athletics Sat, Jun 13 | OAK 56.2% · COL 43.8% | OAK 6–COL 4 | Hit |
| Cubs at Giants Sat, Jun 13 | SF 57.4% · CHC 42.6% | SF 1–CHC 5 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Twins Sat, Jun 13 | MIN 55.8% · STL 44.2% | MIN 6–STL 9 | Miss |
| Yankees at Blue Jays Sat, Jun 13 | TOR 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TOR 1–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Padres at Orioles Sat, Jun 13 | BAL 52.4% · SD 47.5% | BAL 3–SD 9 | Miss |
| Marlins at Pirates Sat, Jun 13 | PIT 55.3% · MIA 44.7% | PIT 3–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Mariners at Nationals Sat, Jun 13 | WSH 57.9% · SEA 42.1% | WSH 8–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Reds Sat, Jun 13 | CIN 55.4% · ARI 44.6% | CIN 2–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Red Sox Sat, Jun 13 | BOS 53.7% · TEX 46.3% | BOS 6–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Tigers at Guardians Sat, Jun 13 | CLE 56.0% · DET 44.0% | CLE 3–DET 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Mets Sat, Jun 13 | NYM 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | NYM 1–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Chicago White Sox Sat, Jun 13 | CWS 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | CWS 1–LAD 7 | Miss |
| Astros at Royals Sat, Jun 13 | KC 54.5% · HOU 45.5% | KC 7–HOU 8 | Miss |
| Phillies at Brewers Sat, Jun 13 | MIL 56.9% · PHI 43.1% | MIL 8–PHI 9 | Miss |
| Cubs at Giants Sun, Jun 14 | SF 55.7% · CHC 44.3% | SF 1–CHC 6 | Miss |
| Rockies at Athletics Sun, Jun 14 | OAK 54.5% · COL 45.5% | OAK 7–COL 5 | Hit |
| Rays at Angels Sun, Jun 14 | LAA 53.8% · TB 46.2% | LAA 8–TB 0 | Hit |
| Marlins at Pirates Sun, Jun 14 | PIT 55.3% · MIA 44.7% | PIT 2–MIA 4 | Miss |
| Padres at Orioles Sun, Jun 14 | BAL 52.4% · SD 47.5% | BAL 2–SD 5 | Miss |
| Mariners at Nationals Sun, Jun 14 | WSH 57.9% · SEA 42.1% | WSH 10–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Blue Jays Sun, Jun 14 | TOR 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TOR 3–NYY 8 | Miss |
| Braves at Mets Sun, Jun 14 | NYM 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | NYM 8–ATL 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Reds Sun, Jun 14 | CIN 55.4% · ARI 44.6% | CIN 3–ARI 5 | Miss |
| Phillies at Brewers Sun, Jun 14 | MIL 56.9% · PHI 43.1% | MIL 4–PHI 0 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Chicago White Sox Sun, Jun 14 | CWS 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | CWS 6–LAD 4 | Hit |
| Astros at Royals Sun, Jun 14 | KC 54.5% · HOU 45.5% | KC 4–HOU 0 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Twins Sun, Jun 14 | MIN 55.8% · STL 44.2% | MIN 5–STL 4 | Hit |
| Rockies at Athletics Sun, Jun 14 | OAK 54.5% · COL 45.5% | OAK 9–COL 23 | Miss |
| Cubs at Giants Sun, Jun 14 | SF 55.7% · CHC 44.3% | SF 5–CHC 1 | Hit |
| Rays at Angels Sun, Jun 14 | LAA 53.8% · TB 46.2% | LAA 3–TB 8 | Miss |
| Rangers at Red Sox Sun, Jun 14 | BOS 53.7% · TEX 46.3% | BOS 4–TEX 6 | Miss |
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.