Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals head-to-head
Kansas City Royals 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Royals:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: KC 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
KC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Royals defeated the Astros 4-0.
Our model predicted the Royals would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Royals and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Royals (back-to-back) vs Astros (back-to-back)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Royals won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Kansas City Royals
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Astros
Royals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
- Previous game55%KC win probability
- Next game54%HOU win probability
Other games on Jun 14, 2026
- 56%SF win probability
- 54%OAK win probability
- 54%LAA win probability
- 55%PIT win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Royals has a 55% win probability, while Astros has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.