MLB report card: week of 2026-04-27 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
52.2%
hit rate
0.250
Brier score
48 of 92 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Royals at MarinersSEA 56.8% pre-game — final SEA 6–KC 7
- Mets at AngelsLAA 56.8% pre-game — final LAA 3–NYM 4
- Phillies at MarlinsMIA 56.8% pre-game — final MIA 5–PHI 6
- Royals at MarinersSEA 54.9% pre-game — final SEA 1–KC 4
- Mets at AngelsLAA 54.9% pre-game — final LAA 1–NYM 5
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Astros at Red SoxBOS 56.8% pre-game — final BOS 3–HOU 1
- Giants at RaysTB 56.8% pre-game — final TB 3–SF 0
- Orioles at YankeesNYY 56.8% pre-game — final NYY 7–BAL 2
- Rangers at TigersDET 54.9% pre-game — final DET 7–TEX 1
- Chicago White Sox at PadresSD 54.9% pre-game — final SD 4–CWS 3
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays at Guardians Mon, Apr 27 | CLE 54.9% · TB 45.1% | CLE 2–TB 3 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Pirates Mon, Apr 27 | PIT 54.9% · STL 45.1% | PIT 2–STL 4 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Blue Jays Mon, Apr 27 | TOR 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | TOR 0–BOS 5 | Miss |
| Angels at Chicago White Sox Mon, Apr 27 | CWS 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CWS 8–LAA 7 | Hit |
| Mariners at Twins Mon, Apr 27 | MIN 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | MIN 11–SEA 4 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rangers Tue, Apr 28 | TEX 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TEX 2–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Cubs at Padres Tue, Apr 28 | SD 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | SD 9–CHC 7 | Hit |
| Marlins at Dodgers Tue, Apr 28 | LAD 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | LAD 5–MIA 4 | Hit |
| Rays at Guardians Tue, Apr 28 | CLE 54.9% · TB 45.1% | CLE 0–TB 1 | Miss |
| Astros at Orioles Tue, Apr 28 | BAL 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | BAL 5–HOU 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Phillies Tue, Apr 28 | PHI 54.9% · SF 45.1% | PHI 7–SF 0 | Hit |
| Rockies at Reds Tue, Apr 28 | CIN 54.9% · COL 45.1% | CIN 7–COL 2 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Pirates Tue, Apr 28 | PIT 54.9% · STL 45.1% | PIT 7–STL 11 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Blue Jays Tue, Apr 28 | TOR 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | TOR 3–BOS 0 | Hit |
| Nationals at Mets Tue, Apr 28 | NYM 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | NYM 8–WSH 0 | Hit |
| Tigers at Braves Tue, Apr 28 | ATL 54.9% · DET 45.1% | ATL 5–DET 2 | Hit |
| Angels at Chicago White Sox Tue, Apr 28 | CWS 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CWS 5–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Brewers Tue, Apr 28 | MIL 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | MIL 13–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Mariners at Twins Tue, Apr 28 | MIN 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | MIN 1–SEA 7 | Miss |
| Yankees at Rangers Wed, Apr 29 | TEX 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TEX 2–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Cubs at Padres Wed, Apr 29 | SD 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | SD 3–CHC 8 | Miss |
| Royals at Athletics Wed, Apr 29 | OAK 54.9% · KC 45.1% | OAK 1–KC 4 | Miss |
| Marlins at Dodgers Wed, Apr 29 | LAD 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | LAD 1–MIA 2 | Miss |
| Rays at Guardians Wed, Apr 29 | CLE 54.9% · TB 45.1% | CLE 3–TB 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Chicago White Sox Wed, Apr 29 | CWS 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CWS 3–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Mariners at Twins Wed, Apr 29 | MIN 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | MIN 3–SEA 5 | Miss |
| Yankees at Rangers Wed, Apr 29 | TEX 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TEX 3–NYY 0 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Blue Jays Wed, Apr 29 | TOR 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | TOR 8–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Marlins at Dodgers Wed, Apr 29 | LAD 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | LAD 2–MIA 3 | Miss |
| Cubs at Padres Wed, Apr 29 | SD 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | SD 4–CHC 5 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Pirates Wed, Apr 29 | PIT 54.9% · STL 45.1% | PIT 4–STL 5 | Miss |
| Rockies at Reds Wed, Apr 29 | CIN 54.9% · COL 45.1% | CIN 2–COL 13 | Miss |
| Nationals at Mets Wed, Apr 29 | NYM 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | NYM 2–WSH 14 | Miss |
| Tigers at Braves Wed, Apr 29 | ATL 54.9% · DET 45.1% | ATL 4–DET 3 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Brewers Wed, Apr 29 | MIL 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | MIL 2–ARI 6 | Miss |
| Royals at Athletics Thu, Apr 30 | OAK 54.9% · KC 45.1% | OAK 5–KC 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Braves Thu, Apr 30 | ATL 54.9% · DET 45.1% | ATL 2–DET 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Phillies Thu, Apr 30 | PHI 54.9% · SF 45.1% | PHI 3–SF 2 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Pirates Thu, Apr 30 | PIT 54.9% · STL 45.1% | PIT 5–STL 10 | Miss |
| Astros at Orioles Thu, Apr 30 | BAL 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | BAL 10–HOU 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Reds Thu, Apr 30 | CIN 54.9% · COL 45.1% | CIN 6–COL 4 | Hit |
| Nationals at Mets Thu, Apr 30 | NYM 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | NYM 4–WSH 5 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Brewers Thu, Apr 30 | MIL 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | MIL 13–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Athletics Thu, Apr 30 | OAK 54.9% · KC 45.1% | OAK 6–KC 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Orioles Thu, Apr 30 | BAL 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | BAL 5–HOU 11 | Miss |
| Giants at Phillies Thu, Apr 30 | PHI 54.9% · SF 45.1% | PHI 6–SF 5 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Twins Thu, Apr 30 | MIN 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | MIN 7–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Cubs Fri, May 1 | CHC 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | CHC 6–ARI 5 | Hit |
| Rangers at Tigers Fri, May 1 | DET 52.9% · TEX 47.1% | DET 4–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Reds at Pirates Fri, May 1 | PIT 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | PIT 9–CIN 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Nationals Fri, May 1 | WSH 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | WSH 1–MIL 6 | Miss |
| Orioles at Yankees Fri, May 1 | NYY 56.8% · BAL 43.2% | NYY 7–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Red Sox Fri, May 1 | BOS 56.8% · HOU 43.2% | BOS 3–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Marlins Fri, May 1 | MIA 56.8% · PHI 43.2% | MIA 5–PHI 6 | Miss |
| Giants at Rays Fri, May 1 | TB 56.8% · SF 43.2% | TB 3–SF 0 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Twins Sat, May 2 | MIN 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | MIN 3–TOR 7 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Cardinals Sat, May 2 | STL 52.9% · LAD 47.1% | STL 7–LAD 2 | Hit |
| Braves at Rockies Sat, May 2 | COL 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | COL 6–ATL 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Angels Sat, May 2 | LAA 56.8% · NYM 43.2% | LAA 3–NYM 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Athletics Sat, May 2 | OAK 52.9% · CLE 47.1% | OAK 5–CLE 8 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Padres Sat, May 2 | SD 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | SD 2–CWS 8 | Miss |
| Royals at Mariners Sat, May 2 | SEA 56.8% · KC 43.2% | SEA 6–KC 7 | Miss |
| Orioles at Yankees Sat, May 2 | NYY 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | NYY 9–BAL 4 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Twins Sat, May 2 | MIN 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | MIN 4–TOR 11 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Cubs Sat, May 2 | CHC 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | CHC 2–ARI 0 | Hit |
| Reds at Pirates Sat, May 2 | PIT 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | PIT 17–CIN 7 | Hit |
| Brewers at Nationals Sat, May 2 | WSH 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | WSH 1–MIL 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Athletics Sat, May 2 | OAK 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | OAK 6–CLE 14 | Miss |
| Phillies at Marlins Sat, May 2 | MIA 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | MIA 4–PHI 0 | Hit |
| Astros at Red Sox Sat, May 2 | BOS 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | BOS 3–HOU 6 | Miss |
| Giants at Rays Sat, May 2 | TB 54.9% · SF 45.1% | TB 5–SF 1 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Cardinals Sat, May 2 | STL 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | STL 3–LAD 2 | Hit |
| Rangers at Tigers Sat, May 2 | DET 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | DET 5–TEX 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Rockies Sun, May 3 | COL 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | COL 1–ATL 9 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Padres Sun, May 3 | SD 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | SD 0–CWS 4 | Miss |
| Mets at Angels Sun, May 3 | LAA 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | LAA 4–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Royals at Mariners Sun, May 3 | SEA 54.9% · KC 45.1% | SEA 2–KC 3 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Twins Sun, May 3 | MIN 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | MIN 4–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Red Sox Sun, May 3 | BOS 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | BOS 1–HOU 3 | Miss |
| Reds at Pirates Sun, May 3 | PIT 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | PIT 1–CIN 0 | Hit |
| Brewers at Nationals Sun, May 3 | WSH 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | WSH 3–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Yankees Sun, May 3 | NYY 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | NYY 11–BAL 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Rays Sun, May 3 | TB 54.9% · SF 45.1% | TB 2–SF 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Marlins Sun, May 3 | MIA 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | MIA 2–PHI 7 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Cardinals Sun, May 3 | STL 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | STL 1–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Cubs Sun, May 3 | CHC 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | CHC 8–ARI 4 | Hit |
| Braves at Rockies Sun, May 3 | COL 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | COL 6–ATL 11 | Miss |
| Guardians at Athletics Sun, May 3 | OAK 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | OAK 7–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Mets at Angels Sun, May 3 | LAA 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | LAA 1–NYM 5 | Miss |
| Royals at Mariners Sun, May 3 | SEA 54.9% · KC 45.1% | SEA 1–KC 4 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Padres Sun, May 3 | SD 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | SD 4–CWS 3 | Hit |
| Rangers at Tigers Sun, May 3 | DET 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | DET 7–TEX 1 | Hit |
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