New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Angels:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Angels rest advantage (2 days rest) over Mets (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: LAA 54% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: LAA 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
LAA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mets defeated the Angels 4-3.
Our model predicted the Angels would win with 57% confidence, but the Mets won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Angels and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Angels and was a contributing factor: Angels rest advantage (2 days rest) over Mets (1 day rest)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Los Angeles Angels
- Rest DaysFavors Los Angeles Angels
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Angels
Mets
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Mets
Angels
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Angels has a 57% win probability, while Mets has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California.