Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Pirates:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PIT 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
PIT home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pirates defeated the Reds 17-7.
Our model predicted the Pirates would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Pirates and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pirates won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Pirates
Reds
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Reds
Pirates
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pirates has a 55% win probability, while Reds has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.