Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
MLBregular • 2026-2027 Season
completed
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Reds (away)
Pirates (home)
45%
Win probability
55%
0
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0
Pirates won 17-7
Pirates won comfortably
Prediction CorrectWe predicted Pirates at 55%
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
CIN
PIT
Home Field Advantage
Favours CIN|Favours PIT
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Pirates
Our Model55%
Reds
Our Model45%
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Model version: 1.0.0 • Calculated: 5/2/2026, 8:45:00 AM
Key Players
Reds
Andrew AbbottSP
Chase BurnsSP
Nick LodoloSP
Chris PaddackSP
Brady SingerSP
Pirates
Paul SkenesSP
Bubba ChandlerSP
Mitch KellerSP
Braxton AshcraftSP
Carmen MlodzinskiSP
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pirates has a 55% win probability, while Reds has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.