San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays
San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays head-to-head
Tampa Bay Rays 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Rays:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Rays rest advantage (2 days rest) over Giants (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field advantage were neutral: TB 54% (−3)
- If the rest advantage were neutral: TB 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
TB home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rays defeated the Giants 3-0.
Our model predicted the Rays would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rays and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Rays and was a contributing factor: Rays rest advantage (2 days rest) over Giants (1 day rest)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Rays (0 out) vs Giants (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rays won in a close game
How the call held up
The last pre-game call against the final score. Winner pre-game probability is how unexpected the result was.
The model favored TB at 57%. Final: TB 3–SF 0.
- pre-game call
- TB 57%
- Final score
- TB 3–SF 0
- Favored team
- The favored team won
- Winner's pre-game probability
- 57%
Simple alignment check: whether the team each factor favored won. This is not a causal claim.
- Home Field Advantage favored TB. Lined up: TB won.
- Rest Days favored TB. Lined up: TB won.
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral — no side favored.
- Head to Head was neutral — no side favored.
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Rest DaysFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Rays
Giants
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Tampa Bay Rays
San Francisco Giants
- Previous game55%PHI win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Other games on May 1, 2026
- 55%CHC win probability
- 53%DET win probability
- 55%PIT win probability
- 55%WSH win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Rays has a 57% win probability, while Giants has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.