MLB2026 season
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, Aug 2, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- PIT at CINSun, Aug 2, 2026CIN 54%CIN 2–10
- PIT at CINSat, Aug 1, 2026CIN 54%PIT 4–1
- PIT at CINFri, Jul 31, 2026CIN 54%CIN 7–8
- PIT at CINThu, Jul 30, 2026CIN 54%CIN 2–3
- CIN at PITSun, Jun 28, 2026PIT 56%PIT 4–9
- CIN at PITSat, Jun 27, 2026PIT 56%CIN 9–7
- CIN at PITFri, Jun 26, 2026PIT 56%CIN 6–4
- CIN at PITSun, May 3, 2026PIT 55%PIT 0–1
- CIN at PITSat, May 2, 2026PIT 55%PIT 7–17
- CIN at PITFri, May 1, 2026PIT 55%PIT 1–9
- PIT at CINWed, Apr 1, 2026CIN 55%PIT 8–3
- PIT at CINTue, Mar 31, 2026CIN 55%PIT 8–3
- PIT at CINMon, Mar 30, 2026CIN 55%CIN 0–2
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
62%
8 of 13 decided games
Meetings graded
13
2026
Correct calls
8
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Cincinnati Reds
- Injuries — Reds healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Blue Jays (14 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency — Reds offense (4.1 R/G) outpaces Blue Jays (4.0 R/G)
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Injuries — Pirates healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Tigers (13 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency — Pirates offense (4.7 R/G) outpaces Tigers (4.5 R/G)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.