Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Mariners:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Mariners rest advantage (2 days rest) over Royals (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SEA 54% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: SEA 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
SEA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Royals defeated the Mariners 7-6.
Our model predicted the Mariners would win with 57% confidence, but the Royals won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Mariners and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Mariners and was a contributing factor: Mariners rest advantage (2 days rest) over Royals (1 day rest)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Royals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Seattle Mariners
- Rest DaysFavors Seattle Mariners
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Mariners
Royals
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Royals
Mariners
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mariners has a 57% win probability, while Royals has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington.