MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-05-25 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 54% across 94 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 57% — final SD 0–PHI 3
- Home Field Advantage (favors SD)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays at Orioles Mon, May 25 | BAL 48% • TB 52% | BAL 9–TB 7 | Miss |
| Cubs at Pirates Mon, May 25 | PIT 61% • CHC 39% | PIT 2–CHC 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Brewers Mon, May 25 | MIL 57% • STL 43% | MIL 5–STL 1 | Hit |
| Twins at Chicago White Sox Mon, May 25 | CWS 49% • MIN 51% | CWS 3–MIN 1 | Miss |
| Yankees at Royals Mon, May 25 | KC 55% • NYY 45% | KC 3–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Reds at Mets Mon, May 25 | NYM 55% • CIN 45% | NYM 2–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Giants Mon, May 25 | SF 56% • ARI 44% | SF 2–ARI 6 | Miss |
| Nationals at Guardians Mon, May 25 | CLE 53% • WSH 47% | CLE 2–WSH 10 | Miss |
| Phillies at Padres Mon, May 25 | SD 57% • PHI 43% | SD 0–PHI 3 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Mon, May 25 | TEX 49% • HOU 51% | TEX 0–HOU 9 | Hit |
| Marlins at Blue Jays Mon, May 25 | TOR 56% • MIA 44% | TOR 2–MIA 8 | Miss |
| Rockies at Dodgers Tue, May 26 | LAD 55% • COL 45% | LAD 5–COL 3 | Hit |
| Mariners at Athletics Tue, May 26 | OAK 55% • SEA 45% | OAK 2–SEA 9 | Miss |
| Nationals at Guardians Tue, May 26 | CLE 53% • WSH 47% | CLE 3–WSH 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Orioles Tue, May 26 | BAL 54% • TB 46% | BAL 6–TB 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Tigers Tue, May 26 | DET 57% • LAA 43% | DET 6–LAA 10 | Miss |
| Cubs at Pirates Tue, May 26 | PIT 55% • CHC 45% | PIT 12–CHC 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Red Sox Tue, May 26 | BOS 54% • ATL 46% | BOS 6–ATL 7 | Miss |
| Marlins at Blue Jays Tue, May 26 | TOR 56% • MIA 44% | TOR 8–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Mets Tue, May 26 | NYM 55% • CIN 45% | NYM 2–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Brewers Tue, May 26 | MIL 57% • STL 43% | MIL 6–STL 0 | Hit |
| Yankees at Royals Tue, May 26 | KC 55% • NYY 45% | KC 1–NYY 15 | Miss |
| Twins at Chicago White Sox Tue, May 26 | CWS 55% • MIN 45% | CWS 3–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Wed, May 27 | TEX 55% • HOU 45% | TEX 10–HOU 7 | Hit |
| Mariners at Athletics Wed, May 27 | OAK 55% • SEA 45% | OAK 1–SEA 4 | Miss |
| Phillies at Padres Wed, May 27 | SD 57% • PHI 43% | SD 3–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Giants Wed, May 27 | SF 56% • ARI 44% | SF 5–ARI 7 | Miss |
| Rockies at Dodgers Wed, May 27 | LAD 55% • COL 45% | LAD 15–COL 6 | Hit |
| Marlins at Blue Jays Wed, May 27 | TOR 56% • MIA 44% | TOR 2–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Guardians Wed, May 27 | CLE 53% • WSH 47% | CLE 3–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Brewers Wed, May 27 | MIL 57% • STL 43% | MIL 2–STL 1 | Hit |
| Mariners at Athletics Wed, May 27 | OAK 55% • SEA 45% | OAK 1–SEA 9 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Giants Wed, May 27 | SF 56% • ARI 44% | SF 2–ARI 3 | Miss |
| Phillies at Padres Wed, May 27 | SD 57% • PHI 43% | SD 0–PHI 3 | Miss |
| Rays at Orioles Wed, May 27 | BAL 54% • TB 46% | BAL 11–TB 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Pirates Wed, May 27 | PIT 55% • CHC 45% | PIT 4–CHC 10 | Miss |
| Angels at Tigers Wed, May 27 | DET 55% • LAA 45% | DET 4–LAA 0 | Hit |
| Braves at Red Sox Wed, May 27 | BOS 54% • ATL 46% | BOS 8–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Reds at Mets Wed, May 27 | NYM 55% • CIN 45% | NYM 4–CIN 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Royals Wed, May 27 | KC 55% • NYY 45% | KC 0–NYY 7 | Miss |
| Twins at Chicago White Sox Wed, May 27 | CWS 55% • MIN 45% | CWS 15–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Rangers Thu, May 28 | TEX 55% • HOU 45% | TEX 3–HOU 4 | Miss |
| Rockies at Dodgers Thu, May 28 | LAD 55% • COL 45% | LAD 4–COL 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Tigers Thu, May 28 | DET 55% • LAA 45% | DET 1–LAA 7 | Miss |
| Twins at Chicago White Sox Thu, May 28 | CWS 55% • MIN 45% | CWS 6–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Braves at Red Sox Thu, May 28 | BOS 54% • ATL 46% | BOS 2–ATL 10 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Orioles Thu, May 28 | BAL 53% • TOR 47% | BAL 1–TOR 2 | Miss |
| Cubs at Pirates Thu, May 28 | PIT 55% • CHC 45% | PIT 2–CHC 7 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Fri, May 29 | TEX 55% • HOU 45% | TEX 1–HOU 5 | Miss |
| Braves at Reds Fri, May 29 | CIN 55% • ATL 45% | CIN 3–ATL 8 | Miss |
| Twins at Pirates Fri, May 29 | PIT 55% • MIN 45% | PIT 6–MIN 5 | Hit |
| Padres at Nationals Fri, May 29 | WSH 56% • SD 44% | WSH 5–SD 7 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Orioles Fri, May 29 | BAL 53% • TOR 47% | BAL 5–TOR 6 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Guardians Fri, May 29 | CLE 58% • BOS 42% | CLE 4–BOS 3 | Hit |
| Angels at Rays Fri, May 29 | TB 58% • LAA 42% | TB 8–LAA 5 | Hit |
| Marlins at Mets Fri, May 29 | NYM 55% • MIA 45% | NYM 9–MIA 7 | Hit |
| Cubs at Cardinals Fri, May 29 | STL 56% • CHC 44% | STL 6–CHC 5 | Hit |
| Tigers at Chicago White Sox Fri, May 29 | CWS 55% • DET 45% | CWS 4–DET 3 | Hit |
| Royals at Rangers Sat, May 30 | TEX 54% • KC 46% | TEX 9–KC 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Astros Sat, May 30 | HOU 51% • MIL 49% | HOU 4–MIL 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Rockies Sat, May 30 | COL 53% • SF 47% | COL 8–SF 6 | Hit |
| Yankees at Athletics Sat, May 30 | OAK 55% • NYY 45% | OAK 2–NYY 8 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Mariners Sat, May 30 | SEA 55% • ARI 45% | SEA 7–ARI 6 | Hit |
| Phillies at Dodgers Sat, May 30 | LAD 55% • PHI 45% | LAD 4–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Chicago White Sox Sat, May 30 | CWS 55% • DET 45% | CWS 7–DET 1 | Hit |
| Twins at Pirates Sat, May 30 | PIT 55% • MIN 45% | PIT 10–MIN 9 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Orioles Sat, May 30 | BAL 53% • TOR 47% | BAL 6–TOR 5 | Hit |
| Padres at Nationals Sat, May 30 | WSH 56% • SD 44% | WSH 9–SD 4 | Hit |
| Royals at Rangers Sat, May 30 | TEX 56% • KC 44% | TEX 7–KC 6 | Hit |
| Marlins at Mets Sat, May 30 | NYM 55% • MIA 45% | NYM 6–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Rays Sat, May 30 | TB 56% • LAA 44% | TB 3–LAA 14 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Guardians Sat, May 30 | CLE 56% • BOS 44% | CLE 1–BOS 9 | Miss |
| Brewers at Astros Sat, May 30 | HOU 53% • MIL 47% | HOU 9–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Cardinals Sat, May 30 | STL 54% • CHC 46% | STL 1–CHC 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Reds Sat, May 30 | CIN 55% • ATL 45% | CIN 2–ATL 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Rockies Sun, May 31 | COL 54% • SF 46% | COL 8–SF 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Athletics Sun, May 31 | OAK 55% • NYY 45% | OAK 6–NYY 4 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Mariners Sun, May 31 | SEA 55% • ARI 45% | SEA 5–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Dodgers Sun, May 31 | LAD 55% • PHI 45% | LAD 3–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Orioles Sun, May 31 | BAL 53% • TOR 47% | BAL 9–TOR 5 | Hit |
| Twins at Pirates Sun, May 31 | PIT 55% • MIN 45% | PIT 9–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Padres at Nationals Sun, May 31 | WSH 56% • SD 44% | WSH 4–SD 2 | Hit |
| Marlins at Mets Sun, May 31 | NYM 55% • MIA 45% | NYM 10–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Reds Sun, May 31 | CIN 55% • ATL 45% | CIN 6–ATL 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Rays Sun, May 31 | TB 56% • LAA 44% | TB 5–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Guardians Sun, May 31 | CLE 56% • BOS 44% | CLE 4–BOS 9 | Miss |
| Brewers at Astros Sun, May 31 | HOU 53% • MIL 47% | HOU 0–MIL 2 | Miss |
| Tigers at Chicago White Sox Sun, May 31 | CWS 55% • DET 45% | CWS 2–DET 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Rangers Sun, May 31 | TEX 56% • KC 44% | TEX 6–KC 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Rockies Sun, May 31 | COL 54% • SF 46% | COL 6–SF 19 | Miss |
| Yankees at Athletics Sun, May 31 | OAK 55% • NYY 45% | OAK 8–NYY 13 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Mariners Sun, May 31 | SEA 55% • ARI 45% | SEA 3–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Dodgers Sun, May 31 | LAD 55% • PHI 45% | LAD 9–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Cardinals Sun, May 31 | STL 54% • CHC 46% | STL 5–CHC 1 | Hit |