New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Falcons defeated the Saints 19-17.
Our model predicted the Falcons would win with 58% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Falcons and was a contributing factor: Atlanta Falcons offense (5.2 YPP) outpaces New Orleans Saints (4.8 YPP)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Falcons and was a notable factor: Atlanta Falcons are 4-4 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Rest Days favored the Saints and was a notable factor: New Orleans Saints has rest advantage (7 days) over Atlanta Falcons (5 days)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Falcons won in a close game
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Medium impact1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Falcons has a 58% win probability, while Saints has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.