NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-04-13 (2025-26)

Hit rate this week: 62% across 21 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.

Biggest upset

The model's favorite lost at 88% — final OKC 103–PHX 135

Game	Pre-game	Final	Result
Nuggets at Spurs Mon, Apr 13	SAS 70% • DEN 30%	SAS 118–DEN 128	Miss
Grizzlies at Rockets Mon, Apr 13	HOU 75% • MEM 25%	HOU 132–MEM 101	Hit
Bulls at Mavericks Mon, Apr 13	DAL 50% • CHI 50%	DAL 149–CHI 128	Hit
Suns at Thunder Mon, Apr 13	OKC 88% • PHX 12%	OKC 103–PHX 135	Miss
Kings at Trail Blazers Mon, Apr 13	POR 85% • SAC 15%	POR 122–SAC 110	Hit
Warriors at Clippers Mon, Apr 13	LAC 56% • GSW 44%	LAC 115–GSW 110	Hit
Jazz at Lakers Mon, Apr 13	LAL 79% • UTA 21%	LAL 131–UTA 107	Hit
Pelicans at Timberwolves Mon, Apr 13	MIN 81% • NOP 19%	MIN 132–NOP 126	Hit
Heat at Hornets Tue, Apr 14	CHA 60% • MIA 40%	CHA 127–MIA 126	Hit
Trail Blazers at Suns Wed, Apr 15	PHX 69% • POR 31%	PHX 110–POR 114	Miss
Magic at 76ers Wed, Apr 15	PHI 49% • ORL 51%	PHI 109–ORL 97	Miss
Warriors at Clippers Thu, Apr 16	LAC 56% • GSW 44%	LAC 121–GSW 126	Miss
Hornets at Magic Fri, Apr 17	ORL 44% • CHA 56%	ORL 121–CHA 90	Miss
Warriors at Suns Sat, Apr 18	PHX 61% • GSW 39%	PHX 111–GSW 96	Hit
Raptors at Cavaliers Sat, Apr 18	CLE 66% • TOR 34%	CLE 126–TOR 113	Hit
Timberwolves at Nuggets Sat, Apr 18	DEN 57% • MIN 43%	DEN 116–MIN 105	Hit
Hawks at Knicks Sat, Apr 18	NYK 75% • ATL 25%	NYK 113–ATL 102	Hit
Rockets at Lakers Sun, Apr 19	LAL 47% • HOU 53%	LAL 107–HOU 98	Miss
76ers at Celtics Sun, Apr 19	BOS 75% • PHI 25%	BOS 123–PHI 91	Hit
Suns at Thunder Sun, Apr 19	OKC 88% • PHX 12%	OKC 119–PHX 84	Hit
Magic at Pistons Sun, Apr 19	DET 81% • ORL 19%	DET 101–ORL 112	Miss