NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-03-02 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 71% across 17 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 85% — final BKN 138–SAS 118
- Offensive Efficiency (favors SAS)
- Defensive Efficiency (favors SAS)
- Recent Form (favors SAS)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kings at Lakers Mon, Mar 2 | LAL 89% • SAC 11% | LAL 128–SAC 104 | Hit |
| Celtics at Bucks Tue, Mar 3 | MIL 23% • BOS 77% | MIL 81–BOS 108 | Hit |
| Knicks at Raptors Wed, Mar 4 | TOR 41% • NYK 60% | TOR 95–NYK 111 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Lakers Wed, Mar 4 | LAL 77% • NOP 23% | LAL 110–NOP 101 | Hit |
| Suns at Kings Wed, Mar 4 | SAC 22% • PHX 78% | SAC 103–PHX 114 | Hit |
| Thunder at Knicks Thu, Mar 5 | NYK 35% • OKC 65% | NYK 100–OKC 103 | Hit |
| Hornets at Celtics Thu, Mar 5 | BOS 75% • CHA 25% | BOS 89–CHA 118 | Miss |
| Trail Blazers at Grizzlies Thu, Mar 5 | MEM 60% • POR 40% | MEM 114–POR 122 | Miss |
| Pelicans at Kings Fri, Mar 6 | SAC 33% • NOP 67% | SAC 123–NOP 133 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Suns Sat, Mar 7 | PHX 72% • NOP 28% | PHX 118–NOP 116 | Hit |
| Jazz at Bucks Sun, Mar 8 | MIL 59% • UTA 41% | MIL 113–UTA 99 | Hit |
| Warriors at Thunder Sun, Mar 8 | OKC 87% • GSW 13% | OKC 104–GSW 97 | Hit |
| Celtics at Cavaliers Sun, Mar 8 | CLE 56% • BOS 44% | CLE 98–BOS 109 | Miss |
| Knicks at Lakers Sun, Mar 8 | LAL 33% • NYK 67% | LAL 110–NYK 97 | Miss |
| Pistons at Heat Sun, Mar 8 | MIA 56% • DET 44% | MIA 121–DET 110 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Raptors Sun, Mar 8 | TOR 56% • DAL 44% | TOR 122–DAL 92 | Hit |
| Spurs at Nets Sun, Mar 8 | BKN 15% • SAS 85% | BKN 138–SAS 118 | Miss |