MLB report card: week of 2026-03-23 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
56.5%
hit rate
0.246
Brier score
39 of 69 decided · 1 tie
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Angels at AstrosHOU 56.3% pre-game — final HOU 0–LAA 3
- Yankees at GiantsSF 56.3% pre-game — final SF 0–NYY 7
- Guardians at MarinersSEA 55.4% pre-game — final SEA 4–CLE 6
- Tigers at PadresSD 55.4% pre-game — final SD 2–DET 8
- Nationals at CubsCHC 54.9% pre-game — final CHC 3–WSH 6
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Rangers at PhilliesPHI 55.4% pre-game — final PHI 5–TEX 3
- Twins at OriolesBAL 55.4% pre-game — final BAL 2–MIN 1
- Guardians at MarinersSEA 54.9% pre-game — final SEA 8–CLE 0
- Chicago White Sox at BrewersMIL 54.9% pre-game — final MIL 9–CWS 7
- Angels at AstrosHOU 54.9% pre-game — final HOU 9–LAA 7
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners at Chicago White Sox Mon, Mar 23 | CWS 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | CWS 2–SEA 4 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Angels Mon, Mar 23 | LAA 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | LAA 5–LAD 13 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Mon, Mar 23 | SD 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | SD 1–ARI 11 | Miss |
| Rays at Phillies Mon, Mar 23 | PHI 54.9% · TB 45.1% | PHI 0–TB 7 | Miss |
| Orioles at Nationals Mon, Mar 23 | WSH 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | WSH 0–BAL 2 | Miss |
| Braves at Pirates Mon, Mar 23 | PIT 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | PIT 2–ATL 5 | Miss |
| Twins at Red Sox Mon, Mar 23 | BOS 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | BOS 6–MIN 9 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Athletics Mon, Mar 23 | OAK 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | OAK 10–CWS 9 | Hit |
| Yankees at Cubs Mon, Mar 23 | CHC 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CHC 15–NYY 6 | Hit |
| Mariners at Padres Mon, Mar 23 | SD 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | SD 10–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Brewers Mon, Mar 23 | MIL 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | MIL 9–CIN 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Rangers Tue, Mar 24 | TEX 54.9% · KC 45.1% | TEX 3–KC 2 | Hit |
| Angels at Dodgers Tue, Mar 24 | LAD 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | LAD 7–LAA 7 | Tie |
| Tigers at Rockies Tue, Mar 24 | COL 54.9% · DET 45.1% | COL 6–DET 5 | Hit |
| Guardians at Diamondbacks Tue, Mar 24 | ARI 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | ARI 0–CLE 7 | Miss |
| Rays at Braves Tue, Mar 24 | ATL 54.9% · TB 45.1% | ATL 3–TB 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Twins Tue, Mar 24 | MIN 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | MIN 15–BOS 6 | Hit |
| Royals at Rangers Tue, Mar 24 | TEX 54.9% · KC 45.1% | TEX 4–KC 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Cubs Tue, Mar 24 | CHC 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | CHC 3–NYY 8 | Miss |
| Tigers at Rockies Tue, Mar 24 | COL 54.9% · DET 45.1% | COL 8–DET 11 | Miss |
| Guardians at Diamondbacks Tue, Mar 24 | ARI 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | ARI 5–CLE 10 | Miss |
| Reds at Brewers Tue, Mar 24 | MIL 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | MIL 4–CIN 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Dodgers Wed, Mar 25 | LAD 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | LAD 0–LAA 3 | Miss |
| Yankees at Giants Thu, Mar 26 | SF 56.3% · NYY 43.7% | SF 0–NYY 7 | Miss |
| Pirates at Mets Thu, Mar 26 | NYM 53.9% · PIT 46.1% | NYM 11–PIT 7 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Brewers Thu, Mar 26 | MIL 52.4% · CWS 47.6% | MIL 14–CWS 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Cubs Thu, Mar 26 | CHC 52.4% · WSH 47.6% | CHC 4–WSH 10 | Miss |
| Twins at Orioles Thu, Mar 26 | BAL 55.4% · MIN 44.6% | BAL 2–MIN 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Astros Thu, Mar 26 | HOU 56.3% · LAA 43.7% | HOU 0–LAA 3 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Reds Thu, Mar 26 | CIN 52.9% · BOS 47.1% | CIN 0–BOS 3 | Miss |
| Tigers at Padres Thu, Mar 26 | SD 55.4% · DET 44.6% | SD 2–DET 8 | Miss |
| Rangers at Phillies Thu, Mar 26 | PHI 55.4% · TEX 44.6% | PHI 5–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Rays at Cardinals Thu, Mar 26 | STL 54.4% · TB 45.6% | STL 9–TB 7 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Fri, Mar 27 | LAD 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | LAD 8–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Mariners Fri, Mar 27 | SEA 55.4% · CLE 44.6% | SEA 4–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Yankees at Giants Fri, Mar 27 | SF 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | SF 0–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Athletics at Blue Jays Fri, Mar 27 | TOR 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | TOR 3–OAK 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Marlins Fri, Mar 27 | MIA 53.9% · COL 46.1% | MIA 2–COL 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Braves Fri, Mar 27 | ATL 54.9% · KC 45.1% | ATL 6–KC 0 | Hit |
| Angels at Astros Sat, Mar 28 | HOU 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | HOU 2–LAA 6 | Miss |
| Tigers at Padres Sat, Mar 28 | SD 54.9% · DET 45.1% | SD 2–DET 5 | Miss |
| Guardians at Mariners Sat, Mar 28 | SEA 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | SEA 5–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Sat, Mar 28 | LAD 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | LAD 5–ARI 4 | Hit |
| Rays at Cardinals Sat, Mar 28 | STL 54.9% · TB 45.1% | STL 6–TB 5 | Hit |
| Nationals at Cubs Sat, Mar 28 | CHC 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | CHC 10–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Athletics at Blue Jays Sat, Mar 28 | TOR 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | TOR 8–OAK 7 | Hit |
| Twins at Orioles Sat, Mar 28 | BAL 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | BAL 1–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Rangers at Phillies Sat, Mar 28 | PHI 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | PHI 4–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Rockies at Marlins Sat, Mar 28 | MIA 54.9% · COL 45.1% | MIA 4–COL 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Mets Sat, Mar 28 | NYM 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | NYM 4–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Reds Sat, Mar 28 | CIN 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | CIN 6–BOS 5 | Hit |
| Angels at Astros Sat, Mar 28 | HOU 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | HOU 11–LAA 9 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Brewers Sat, Mar 28 | MIL 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | MIL 6–CWS 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Braves Sat, Mar 28 | ATL 54.9% · KC 45.1% | ATL 6–KC 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Giants Sat, Mar 28 | SF 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | SF 1–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Tigers at Padres Sun, Mar 29 | SD 54.9% · DET 45.1% | SD 3–DET 0 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Sun, Mar 29 | LAD 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | LAD 3–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Mariners Sun, Mar 29 | SEA 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | SEA 5–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Rangers at Phillies Sun, Mar 29 | PHI 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | PHI 3–TEX 8 | Miss |
| Royals at Braves Sun, Mar 29 | ATL 54.9% · KC 45.1% | ATL 1–KC 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Orioles Sun, Mar 29 | BAL 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | BAL 8–MIN 6 | Hit |
| Athletics at Blue Jays Sun, Mar 29 | TOR 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | TOR 5–OAK 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Mets Sun, Mar 29 | NYM 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | NYM 3–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Rockies at Marlins Sun, Mar 29 | MIA 54.9% · COL 45.1% | MIA 4–COL 3 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Reds Sun, Mar 29 | CIN 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | CIN 3–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Brewers Sun, Mar 29 | MIL 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | MIL 9–CWS 7 | Hit |
| Angels at Astros Sun, Mar 29 | HOU 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | HOU 9–LAA 7 | Hit |
| Rays at Cardinals Sun, Mar 29 | STL 54.9% · TB 45.1% | STL 7–TB 11 | Miss |
| Nationals at Cubs Sun, Mar 29 | CHC 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | CHC 3–WSH 6 | Miss |
| Guardians at Mariners Sun, Mar 29 | SEA 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | SEA 8–CLE 0 | Hit |
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