Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
New York Mets 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Mets:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYM 51% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: NYM 56% (+2)
Win probability movement
NYM home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mets defeated the Pirates 11-7.
Our model predicted the Mets would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Mets and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Pirates and was a contributing factor: Pirates rest advantage (3 days rest) over Mets (4 days rest)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mets won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Mets
- Rest DaysFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pirates
Mets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mets has a 54% win probability, while Pirates has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Citi Field in Queens, New York.