MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-07-27 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 51% across 97 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 57% — final TOR 1–STL 5
- Home Field Advantage (favors TOR)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners at Rangers Mon, Jul 27 | TEX 56% • SEA 44% | TEX 7–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Phillies at Marlins Mon, Jul 27 | MIA 61% • PHI 39% | MIA 8–PHI 7 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Pirates Mon, Jul 27 | PIT 56% • ARI 44% | PIT 3–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Tigers Mon, Jul 27 | DET 55% • BAL 45% | DET 5–BAL 8 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Nationals Mon, Jul 27 | WSH 56% • TOR 44% | WSH 2–TOR 3 | Miss |
| Braves at Mets Mon, Jul 27 | NYM 55% • ATL 45% | NYM 14–ATL 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Chicago White Sox Mon, Jul 27 | CWS 55% • NYY 45% | CWS 5–NYY 9 | Miss |
| Cubs at Cardinals Mon, Jul 27 | STL 54% • CHC 46% | STL 3–CHC 7 | Miss |
| Astros at Angels Tue, Jul 28 | LAA 54% • HOU 46% | LAA 4–HOU 6 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Athletics Tue, Jul 28 | OAK 56% • BOS 44% | OAK 2–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Brewers at Giants Tue, Jul 28 | SF 54% • MIL 46% | SF 3–MIL 0 | Hit |
| Guardians at Reds Tue, Jul 28 | CIN 52% • CLE 48% | CIN 5–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Pirates Tue, Jul 28 | PIT 56% • ARI 44% | PIT 7–ARI 8 | Miss |
| Rangers at Rays Tue, Jul 28 | TB 57% • TEX 43% | TB 1–TEX 4 | Miss |
| Orioles at Tigers Tue, Jul 28 | DET 55% • BAL 45% | DET 14–BAL 0 | Hit |
| Phillies at Marlins Tue, Jul 28 | MIA 55% • PHI 45% | MIA 1–PHI 0 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Nationals Tue, Jul 28 | WSH 56% • TOR 44% | WSH 8–TOR 6 | Hit |
| Guardians at Reds Tue, Jul 28 | CIN 54% • CLE 46% | CIN 2–CLE 0 | Hit |
| Royals at Twins Tue, Jul 28 | MIN 55% • KC 45% | MIN 3–KC 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Chicago White Sox Tue, Jul 28 | CWS 55% • NYY 45% | CWS 2–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Cubs at Cardinals Tue, Jul 28 | STL 54% • CHC 46% | STL 2–CHC 10 | Miss |
| Astros at Angels Wed, Jul 29 | LAA 54% • HOU 46% | LAA 2–HOU 3 | Miss |
| Rockies at Padres Wed, Jul 29 | SD 56% • COL 44% | SD 8–COL 7 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Athletics Wed, Jul 29 | OAK 56% • BOS 44% | OAK 4–BOS 3 | Hit |
| Brewers at Giants Wed, Jul 29 | SF 54% • MIL 46% | SF 2–MIL 8 | Miss |
| Mariners at Dodgers Wed, Jul 29 | LAD 57% • SEA 43% | LAD 6–SEA 7 | Miss |
| Phillies at Marlins Wed, Jul 29 | MIA 55% • PHI 45% | MIA 8–PHI 6 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Pirates Wed, Jul 29 | PIT 56% • ARI 44% | PIT 0–ARI 3 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Nationals Wed, Jul 29 | WSH 56% • TOR 44% | WSH 2–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Braves at Mets Wed, Jul 29 | NYM 55% • ATL 45% | NYM 3–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Tigers Wed, Jul 29 | DET 55% • BAL 45% | DET 9–BAL 10 | Miss |
| Brewers at Giants Wed, Jul 29 | SF 54% • MIL 46% | SF 16–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Padres Wed, Jul 29 | SD 56% • COL 44% | SD 3–COL 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Rays Wed, Jul 29 | TB 55% • TEX 45% | TB 3–TEX 0 | Hit |
| Braves at Mets Wed, Jul 29 | NYM 55% • ATL 45% | NYM 0–ATL 1 | Miss |
| Guardians at Reds Wed, Jul 29 | CIN 54% • CLE 46% | CIN 1–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Royals at Twins Wed, Jul 29 | MIN 55% • KC 45% | MIN 0–KC 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Chicago White Sox Wed, Jul 29 | CWS 55% • NYY 45% | CWS 6–NYY 5 | Hit |
| Cubs at Cardinals Wed, Jul 29 | STL 54% • CHC 46% | STL 3–CHC 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Angels Thu, Jul 30 | LAA 54% • HOU 46% | LAA 4–HOU 7 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Athletics Thu, Jul 30 | OAK 56% • BOS 44% | OAK 2–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Dodgers Thu, Jul 30 | LAD 55% • SEA 45% | LAD 4–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Rangers at Rays Thu, Jul 30 | TB 55% • TEX 45% | TB 3–TEX 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Twins Thu, Jul 30 | MIN 55% • KC 45% | MIN 4–KC 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Chicago White Sox Thu, Jul 30 | CWS 55% • NYY 45% | CWS 2–NYY 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Cardinals Thu, Jul 30 | STL 54% • CHC 46% | STL 2–CHC 4 | Miss |
| Nationals at Braves Thu, Jul 30 | ATL 46% • WSH 54% | ATL 5–WSH 4 | Miss |
| Marlins at Mets Thu, Jul 30 | NYM 55% • MIA 45% | NYM 4–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Reds Thu, Jul 30 | CIN 54% • PIT 46% | CIN 3–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Athletics Fri, Jul 31 | OAK 56% • BOS 44% | OAK 4–BOS 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Padres Fri, Jul 31 | SD 56% • SF 44% | SD 1–SF 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Dodgers Fri, Jul 31 | LAD 55% • SEA 45% | LAD 6–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Cubs Fri, Jul 31 | CHC 55% • NYY 45% | CHC 0–NYY 2 | Miss |
| Pirates at Reds Fri, Jul 31 | CIN 54% • PIT 46% | CIN 8–PIT 7 | Hit |
| Phillies at Orioles Fri, Jul 31 | BAL 55% • PHI 45% | BAL 6–PHI 4 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Blue Jays Fri, Jul 31 | TOR 59% • STL 41% | TOR 3–STL 1 | Hit |
| Marlins at Mets Fri, Jul 31 | NYM 55% • MIA 45% | NYM 2–MIA 5 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Guardians Fri, Jul 31 | CLE 56% • ARI 44% | CLE 1–ARI 4 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Rays Fri, Jul 31 | TB 55% • CWS 45% | TB 1–CWS 6 | Miss |
| Nationals at Braves Fri, Jul 31 | ATL 52% • WSH 48% | ATL 6–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Rangers at Astros Sat, Aug 1 | HOU 55% • TEX 45% | HOU 11–TEX 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Rockies Sat, Aug 1 | COL 57% • KC 43% | COL 3–KC 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Angels Sat, Aug 1 | LAA 53% • MIL 47% | LAA 2–MIL 6 | Miss |
| Tigers at Athletics Sat, Aug 1 | OAK 54% • DET 46% | OAK 1–DET 13 | Miss |
| Giants at Padres Sat, Aug 1 | SD 56% • SF 44% | SD 7–SF 0 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Dodgers Sat, Aug 1 | LAD 55% • BOS 45% | LAD 4–BOS 9 | Miss |
| Twins at Mariners Sat, Aug 1 | SEA 54% • MIN 46% | SEA 3–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Blue Jays Sat, Aug 1 | TOR 57% • STL 43% | TOR 5–STL 1 | Hit |
| Twins at Mariners Sat, Aug 1 | SEA 54% • MIN 46% | SEA 4–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Mets Sat, Aug 1 | NYM 55% • MIA 45% | NYM 2–MIA 6 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Rays Sat, Aug 1 | TB 55% • CWS 45% | TB 1–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Pirates at Reds Sat, Aug 1 | CIN 54% • PIT 46% | CIN 1–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Phillies at Orioles Sat, Aug 1 | BAL 55% • PHI 45% | BAL 0–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Rangers at Astros Sat, Aug 1 | HOU 55% • TEX 45% | HOU 5–TEX 4 | Hit |
| Yankees at Cubs Sat, Aug 1 | CHC 55% • NYY 45% | CHC 5–NYY 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Braves Sat, Aug 1 | ATL 52% • WSH 48% | ATL 8–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Guardians Sat, Aug 1 | CLE 56% • ARI 44% | CLE 8–ARI 12 | Miss |
| Royals at Rockies Sun, Aug 2 | COL 56% • KC 44% | COL 12–KC 6 | Hit |
| Giants at Padres Sun, Aug 2 | SD 56% • SF 44% | SD 6–SF 5 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Dodgers Sun, Aug 2 | LAD 55% • BOS 45% | LAD 2–BOS 3 | Miss |
| Brewers at Angels Sun, Aug 2 | LAA 53% • MIL 47% | LAA 1–MIL 3 | Miss |
| Tigers at Athletics Sun, Aug 2 | OAK 55% • DET 45% | OAK 6–DET 8 | Miss |
| Nationals at Braves Sun, Aug 2 | ATL 52% • WSH 48% | ATL 4–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Orioles Sun, Aug 2 | BAL 55% • PHI 45% | BAL 0–PHI 8 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Blue Jays Sun, Aug 2 | TOR 57% • STL 43% | TOR 1–STL 5 | Miss |
| Marlins at Mets Sun, Aug 2 | NYM 55% • MIA 45% | NYM 0–MIA 2 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Guardians Sun, Aug 2 | CLE 56% • ARI 44% | CLE 5–ARI 0 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Rays Sun, Aug 2 | TB 55% • CWS 45% | TB 1–CWS 9 | Miss |
| Pirates at Reds Sun, Aug 2 | CIN 54% • PIT 46% | CIN 10–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Rangers at Astros Sun, Aug 2 | HOU 55% • TEX 45% | HOU 7–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Cubs Sun, Aug 2 | CHC 55% • NYY 45% | CHC 1–NYY 2 | Miss |
| Royals at Rockies Sun, Aug 2 | COL 56% • KC 44% | COL 8–KC 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Angels Sun, Aug 2 | LAA 53% • MIL 47% | LAA 3–MIL 0 | Hit |
| Tigers at Athletics Sun, Aug 2 | OAK 55% • DET 45% | OAK 0–DET 11 | Miss |
| Twins at Mariners Sun, Aug 2 | SEA 54% • MIN 46% | SEA 7–MIN 6 | Hit |
| Giants at Padres Sun, Aug 2 | SD 56% • SF 44% | SD 5–SF 4 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Dodgers Sun, Aug 2 | LAD 55% • BOS 45% | LAD 4–BOS 8 | Miss |