Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays head-to-head
Milwaukee Brewers 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Brewers:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIL 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
MIL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Brewers defeated the Blue Jays 2-1.
Our model predicted the Brewers would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Brewers and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Brewers (0 out) vs Blue Jays (0 out)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Brewers (back-to-back) vs Blue Jays (back-to-back)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Brewers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Blue Jays
Brewers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Previous game55%MIL win probability
- Next game55%MIA win probability
Toronto Blue Jays
- Previous game55%MIL win probability
- Next game57%ARI win probability
Other games on Apr 16, 2026
- 55%HOU win probability
- 55%OAK win probability
- 55%SD win probability
- 55%LAD win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Brewers has a 55% win probability, while Blue Jays has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.