Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Diamondbacks:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Diamondbacks rest advantage (2 days rest) over Blue Jays (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ARI 54% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: ARI 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
ARI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Diamondbacks defeated the Blue Jays 6-3.
Our model predicted the Diamondbacks would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Diamondbacks and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Diamondbacks and was a contributing factor: Diamondbacks rest advantage (2 days rest) over Blue Jays (1 day rest)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Diamondbacks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Rest DaysFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Blue Jays
Diamondbacks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Diamondbacks has a 57% win probability, while Blue Jays has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.