PlayDecoded
Menu
MLB2026 season

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers

Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.

Most recent meeting

Sun, Jul 19, 2026

Brewers logo
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
3
vs
Marlins logo
MIA
Miami Marlins
1
MIL 56%44% MIA
Open the game page

This season

2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.

Model record on this matchup

Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.

Hit rate
67%
4 of 6 decided games
Meetings graded
6
2026
Correct calls
4
Favorite won

Factor comparison

Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.

Miami Marlins
  • Injuries — Marlins healthier (10 out, 0 doubtful) vs Braves (10 out, 0 doubtful)
  • Home Field Advantage — Marlins are 38-28 at home this season; Braves are 39-33 on the road
Milwaukee Brewers
  • Injuries — Brewers healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Rays 6 out, 0 doubtful
  • Offensive Efficiency — Brewers offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Rays (4.5 R/G)
  • Home Field Advantage — Brewers are 54-26 at home this season; Rays are 36-42 on the road

Get the weekly model report card

Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.