MLB2026 season
San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, May 17, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- SD at SEASun, May 17, 2026SEA 53%SD 8–3
- SD at SEASat, May 16, 2026SEA 53%SD 7–4
- SD at SEAFri, May 15, 2026SEA 55%SD 2–0
- SEA at SDThu, Apr 16, 2026SD 55%SD 2–5
- SEA at SDWed, Apr 15, 2026SD 55%SD 6–7
- SEA at SDTue, Apr 14, 2026SD 57%SD 1–4
- SEA at SDMon, Mar 23, 2026SD 55%SD 3–10
- SD at SEATue, Mar 17, 2026SEA 55%SD 9–6
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
50%
4 of 8 decided games
Meetings graded
8
2026
Correct calls
4
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
San Diego Padres
- Injuries — Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage — Padres are 46-31 at home this season; Brewers are 42-31 on the road
Seattle Mariners
- Home Field Advantage — Mariners are 38-35 at home this season; Angels are 30-48 on the road
- Defensive Efficiency — Mariners pitching/defense (4.5 RA/G) better than Angels (4.6 RA/G)
- ELO Rating — Mariners ELO 1462 vs Angels ELO 1417 (diff: +46)
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