Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning head-to-head
Tampa Bay Lightning 57% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lightning:
- Injuries. Lightning healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Wild 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Recent Form. Lightning (7-3) in better form than Wild (6-3)
- ELO Rating. Wild ELO 1508 vs Lightning ELO 1536 (diff: -28)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the injury edge were neutral: TBL 44% (−13)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TBL 63% (+6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TBL 56% (−1)
- If the rating edge were neutral: TBL 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
MIN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Lightning at Wild
The Lightning visit the Wild at Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul, MN in 2026-27 NHL regular season play.
Our model gives the Lightning a 57% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Wild to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Injuries favors the Lightning (high): Lightning healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Wild 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favors the Wild (medium): Wild are 5-1 at home this season; Lightning are 3-4 on the road
- Recent Form favors the Lightning (low): Lightning (7-3) in better form than Wild (6-3)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Wild have 4 player(s) ruled out, while the Lightning have 2.
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Wild
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Lightning healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Wild 4 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Injury Report
Wild
Lightning
Key Players
Lightning
Wild
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Minnesota Wild
- Previous game61%MIN win probability
- Next game
No next game this season
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Previous game64%TBL win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Other games on Nov 8, 2026
- 51%OTT win probability
- 54%NJD win probability
- 60%MTL win probability
- 52%DAL win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Wild has a 43% win probability, while Lightning has a 57% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul, MN.