NHL2026-27 season
Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Head-to-head win probability for NHL. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Next meeting
Sat, Nov 7, 2026
This season
2026-27 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
100%
1 of 1 decided games
Meetings graded
1
2026-27
Correct calls
1
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Montreal Canadiens
- Injuries — Canadiens healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 10 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating — Maple Leafs ELO 1477 vs Canadiens ELO 1525 (diff: -48)
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Home Field Advantage — Maple Leafs are 5-5 at home this season; Canadiens are 3-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
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