Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs head-to-head
Montreal Canadiens 60% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Canadiens:
- Injuries. Canadiens healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 10 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating. Maple Leafs ELO 1477 vs Canadiens ELO 1525 (diff: -48)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the injury edge were neutral: MTL 47% (−13)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MTL 63% (+3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: MTL 59% (−1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MTL 61% (+1)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Canadiens at Maple Leafs
The Canadiens visit the Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON in 2026-27 NHL regular season play.
Our model gives the Canadiens a 60% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Maple Leafs to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Injuries favors the Canadiens (high): Canadiens healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 10 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favors the Maple Leafs (low): Maple Leafs are 5-5 at home this season; Canadiens are 3-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favors the Canadiens (low): Maple Leafs ELO 1477 vs Canadiens ELO 1525 (diff: -48)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Maple Leafs have 10 player(s) ruled out, while the Canadiens have 6.
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- ELO RatingFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Canadiens healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 10 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Maple Leafs
Canadiens
Key Players
Canadiens
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Previous game60%UTA win probability
- Next game-No model yet
Montreal Canadiens
- Previous game58%UTA win probability
- Next game
No next game this season
Other games on Nov 8, 2026
- 51%OTT win probability
- 54%NJD win probability
- 52%DAL win probability
- 57%CAR win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 40% win probability, while Canadiens has a 60% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.