Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
Montreal Canadiens 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Canadiens:
- Injuries. Canadiens healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 5 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating. Maple Leafs ELO 1465 vs Canadiens ELO 1534 (diff: -70)
- Rest Days. Canadiens rest advantage (3 days rest) over Maple Leafs (6 days rest)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Canadiens defeated the Maple Leafs 3-2.
Our model predicted the Canadiens would win with 59% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Canadiens and was a major factor: Canadiens healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Maple Leafs are 1-1 at home this season; Canadiens are 1-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favored the Canadiens and was a contributing factor: Maple Leafs ELO 1465 vs Canadiens ELO 1534 (diff: -70)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Maple Leafs have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Canadiens have 4.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Canadiens won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- ELO RatingFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Rest DaysFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Canadiens healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 5 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Injury Report
Maple Leafs
Canadiens
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 41% win probability, while Canadiens has a 59% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.