Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Maple Leafs:
- Home Field Advantage. Maple Leafs are 5-5 at home this season; Canadiens are 3-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
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Canadiens at Maple Leafs
The Canadiens visit the Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.
Our model gives the Maple Leafs a 53% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Canadiens to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Maple Leafs (low): Maple Leafs are 5-5 at home this season; Canadiens are 3-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favors the Canadiens (low): Maple Leafs ELO 1477 vs Canadiens ELO 1525 (diff: -48)
- Recent Form is neutral: Similar form: Maple Leafs (6-4) vs Canadiens (5-3)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- ELO RatingFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Canadiens
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 53% win probability, while Canadiens has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.