Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers head-to-head
Denver Broncos 63% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Broncos:
- Home Field Advantage. Broncos are 3-0 at home this season; Chargers are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating. Broncos ELO 1598 vs Chargers ELO 1478 (diff: +119)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DEN 56% (−7)
- If the rating edge were neutral: DEN 59% (−4)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Chargers at Broncos
The Chargers visit the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO in NFL regular season Week 18 action.
Our model gives the Broncos a 63% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Chargers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Broncos (high): Broncos are 3-0 at home this season; Chargers are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favors the Broncos (low): Broncos ELO 1598 vs Chargers ELO 1478 (diff: +119)
- Recent Form is neutral: Insufficient games for recent form analysis
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Denver Broncos
- ELO RatingFavors Denver Broncos
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Broncos are 3-0 at home this season; Chargers are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Chargers
Broncos
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Denver Broncos
- Previous game60%DEN win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Los Angeles Chargers
- Previous game57%KC win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Other Week 18 games
- 53%NO win probability
- 55%CAR win probability
- 57%SF win probability
- 60%KC win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Broncos has a 63% win probability, while Chargers has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO.