Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Raiders defeated the Chiefs 14-12.
Our model predicted the Raiders would win with 62% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Raiders and was a notable factor: Las Vegas Raiders are 8-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Chiefs and was a contributing factor: Kansas City Chiefs defense (4.7 YPP allowed) is stronger than Las Vegas Raiders (5.2 YPP allowed)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Raiders and was a contributing factor: Las Vegas Raiders offense (5.1 YPP) outpaces Kansas City Chiefs (4.7 YPP)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Raiders won in a close game
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Raiders has a 62% win probability, while Chiefs has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV.