NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-04-20 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 55% across 22 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 87% — final SAS 103–POR 106
- Defensive Efficiency (favors SAS)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors SAS)
- Recent Form (favors SAS)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trail Blazers at Spurs Mon, Apr 20 | SAS 86% • POR 14% | SAS 111–POR 98 | Hit |
| Raptors at Cavaliers Mon, Apr 20 | CLE 66% • TOR 34% | CLE 115–TOR 105 | Hit |
| Hawks at Knicks Tue, Apr 21 | NYK 75% • ATL 25% | NYK 106–ATL 107 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Nuggets Tue, Apr 21 | DEN 57% • MIN 43% | DEN 114–MIN 119 | Miss |
| 76ers at Celtics Tue, Apr 21 | BOS 76% • PHI 24% | BOS 97–PHI 111 | Miss |
| Trail Blazers at Spurs Wed, Apr 22 | SAS 87% • POR 13% | SAS 103–POR 106 | Miss |
| Rockets at Lakers Wed, Apr 22 | LAL 47% • HOU 53% | LAL 101–HOU 94 | Miss |
| Magic at Pistons Wed, Apr 22 | DET 81% • ORL 19% | DET 98–ORL 83 | Hit |
| Suns at Thunder Thu, Apr 23 | OKC 88% • PHX 12% | OKC 120–PHX 107 | Hit |
| Knicks at Hawks Thu, Apr 23 | ATL 34% • NYK 66% | ATL 109–NYK 108 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Raptors Fri, Apr 24 | TOR 46% • CLE 54% | TOR 126–CLE 104 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Timberwolves Fri, Apr 24 | MIN 54% • DEN 47% | MIN 113–DEN 96 | Hit |
| Celtics at 76ers Fri, Apr 24 | PHI 35% • BOS 65% | PHI 100–BOS 108 | Hit |
| Lakers at Rockets Sat, Apr 25 | HOU 65% • LAL 35% | HOU 108–LAL 112 | Miss |
| Spurs at Trail Blazers Sat, Apr 25 | POR 20% • SAS 80% | POR 108–SAS 120 | Hit |
| Pistons at Magic Sat, Apr 25 | ORL 28% • DET 72% | ORL 113–DET 105 | Miss |
| Thunder at Suns Sat, Apr 25 | PHX 19% • OKC 81% | PHX 109–OKC 121 | Hit |
| Knicks at Hawks Sat, Apr 25 | ATL 34% • NYK 66% | ATL 98–NYK 114 | Hit |
| Nuggets at Timberwolves Sun, Apr 26 | MIN 54% • DEN 47% | MIN 112–DEN 96 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Raptors Sun, Apr 26 | TOR 46% • CLE 54% | TOR 93–CLE 89 | Miss |
| Spurs at Trail Blazers Sun, Apr 26 | POR 20% • SAS 80% | POR 93–SAS 114 | Hit |
| Celtics at 76ers Sun, Apr 26 | PHI 35% • BOS 65% | PHI 96–BOS 128 | Hit |