Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves head-to-head
Minnesota Timberwolves 87% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Timberwolves:
- Offensive Efficiency. Timberwolves offense (123.0 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (112.3 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Timberwolves defense (99.5 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.3 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Timberwolves ELO 1566 vs Mavericks ELO 1410 (diff: +156)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 75% (−12)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 75% (−12)
- If the rating edge were neutral: MIN 84% (−3)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 87% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Mavericks at Timberwolves
The Mavericks visit the Timberwolves at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN in 2026-27 NBA regular season play.
Our model gives the Timberwolves a 87% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Mavericks to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Timberwolves (high): Timberwolves offense (123.0 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (112.3 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Timberwolves (high): Timberwolves defense (99.5 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.3 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Timberwolves (medium): Timberwolves ELO 1566 vs Mavericks ELO 1410 (diff: +156)
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- ELO RatingFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Timberwolves offense (123.0 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (112.3 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Timberwolves defense (99.5 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.3 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Timberwolves turnover differential (+0) vs Mavericks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Mavericks
Timberwolves
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Previous game87%MIN win probability
- Next game87%MIN win probability
Dallas Mavericks
- Previous game56%DAL win probability
- Next game71%CLE win probability
Other games on Nov 12, 2026
- 82%DET win probability
- 79%TOR win probability
- 54%PHX win probability
No other game on this slate
Frequently Asked Questions
Timberwolves has a 87% win probability, while Mavericks has a 13% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN.