MLB report card: week of 2026-03-30 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
53.3%
hit rate
0.250
Brier score
49 of 92 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Dodgers at NationalsWSH 56.8% pre-game — final WSH 6–LAD 13
- Guardians at DodgersLAD 56.8% pre-game — final LAD 2–CLE 4
- Cardinals at TigersDET 54.9% pre-game — final DET 3–STL 5
- Mets at GiantsSF 54.9% pre-game — final SF 2–NYM 5
- Reds at RangersTEX 54.9% pre-game — final TEX 1–CIN 2
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Padres at Red SoxBOS 56.8% pre-game — final BOS 5–SD 2
- Cubs at GuardiansCLE 54.9% pre-game — final CLE 6–CHC 5
- Braves at DiamondbacksARI 54.9% pre-game — final ARI 6–ATL 5
- Mariners at AngelsLAA 54.9% pre-game — final LAA 8–SEA 7
- Astros at AthleticsOAK 54.9% pre-game — final OAK 12–HOU 10
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins at Royals Mon, Mar 30 | KC 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | KC 3–MIN 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Orioles Mon, Mar 30 | BAL 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | BAL 2–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Marlins Mon, Mar 30 | MIA 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | MIA 4–CWS 9 | Miss |
| Pirates at Reds Mon, Mar 30 | CIN 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | CIN 2–PIT 0 | Hit |
| Nationals at Phillies Mon, Mar 30 | PHI 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | PHI 2–WSH 13 | Miss |
| Rockies at Blue Jays Mon, Mar 30 | TOR 54.9% · COL 45.1% | TOR 5–COL 14 | Miss |
| Athletics at Braves Mon, Mar 30 | ATL 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | ATL 4–OAK 0 | Hit |
| Rays at Brewers Mon, Mar 30 | MIL 54.9% · TB 45.1% | MIL 2–TB 3 | Miss |
| Angels at Cubs Mon, Mar 30 | CHC 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CHC 7–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Cardinals Mon, Mar 30 | STL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | STL 2–NYM 4 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Astros Tue, Mar 31 | HOU 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | HOU 8–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Giants at Padres Tue, Mar 31 | SD 54.9% · SF 45.1% | SD 2–SF 3 | Miss |
| Yankees at Mariners Tue, Mar 31 | SEA 52.9% · NYY 47.1% | SEA 2–NYY 1 | Hit |
| Guardians at Dodgers Tue, Mar 31 | LAD 56.8% · CLE 43.2% | LAD 2–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Tigers at Diamondbacks Tue, Mar 31 | ARI 54.9% · DET 45.1% | ARI 9–DET 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Orioles Tue, Mar 31 | BAL 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | BAL 5–TEX 8 | Miss |
| Nationals at Phillies Tue, Mar 31 | PHI 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | PHI 3–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Marlins Tue, Mar 31 | MIA 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | MIA 9–CWS 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Reds Tue, Mar 31 | CIN 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | CIN 3–PIT 8 | Miss |
| Rockies at Blue Jays Tue, Mar 31 | TOR 54.9% · COL 45.1% | TOR 5–COL 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Braves Tue, Mar 31 | ATL 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | ATL 2–OAK 5 | Miss |
| Rays at Brewers Tue, Mar 31 | MIL 54.9% · TB 45.1% | MIL 6–TB 2 | Hit |
| Angels at Cubs Tue, Mar 31 | CHC 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CHC 0–LAA 2 | Miss |
| Mets at Cardinals Tue, Mar 31 | STL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | STL 3–NYM 0 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Astros Wed, Apr 1 | HOU 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | HOU 9–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Mariners Wed, Apr 1 | SEA 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | SEA 0–NYY 5 | Miss |
| Tigers at Diamondbacks Wed, Apr 1 | ARI 54.9% · DET 45.1% | ARI 7–DET 5 | Hit |
| Giants at Padres Wed, Apr 1 | SD 54.9% · SF 45.1% | SD 3–SF 9 | Miss |
| Guardians at Dodgers Wed, Apr 1 | LAD 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | LAD 4–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Braves Wed, Apr 1 | ATL 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | ATL 5–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Orioles Wed, Apr 1 | BAL 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | BAL 8–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Reds Wed, Apr 1 | CIN 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | CIN 3–PIT 8 | Miss |
| Nationals at Phillies Wed, Apr 1 | PHI 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | PHI 6–WSH 5 | Hit |
| Rockies at Blue Jays Wed, Apr 1 | TOR 54.9% · COL 45.1% | TOR 1–COL 2 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Marlins Wed, Apr 1 | MIA 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | MIA 10–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Mets at Cardinals Wed, Apr 1 | STL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | STL 2–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Rays at Brewers Wed, Apr 1 | MIL 54.9% · TB 45.1% | MIL 8–TB 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Astros Wed, Apr 1 | HOU 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | HOU 6–BOS 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Cubs Wed, Apr 1 | CHC 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CHC 6–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Diamondbacks Wed, Apr 1 | ARI 54.9% · DET 45.1% | ARI 1–DET 0 | Hit |
| Giants at Padres Wed, Apr 1 | SD 54.9% · SF 45.1% | SD 7–SF 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Mariners Wed, Apr 1 | SEA 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | SEA 3–NYY 5 | Miss |
| Twins at Royals Wed, Apr 1 | KC 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | KC 13–MIN 9 | Hit |
| Guardians at Dodgers Thu, Apr 2 | LAD 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | LAD 1–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Royals Thu, Apr 2 | KC 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | KC 1–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Braves at Diamondbacks Fri, Apr 3 | ARI 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | ARI 2–ATL 17 | Miss |
| Mets at Giants Fri, Apr 3 | SF 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | SF 7–NYM 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Nationals Fri, Apr 3 | WSH 56.8% · LAD 43.2% | WSH 6–LAD 13 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Tigers Fri, Apr 3 | DET 54.9% · STL 45.1% | DET 4–STL 0 | Hit |
| Marlins at Yankees Fri, Apr 3 | NYY 52.9% · MIA 47.1% | NYY 8–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Red Sox Fri, Apr 3 | BOS 56.8% · SD 43.2% | BOS 5–SD 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox Fri, Apr 3 | CWS 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | CWS 5–TOR 4 | Hit |
| Reds at Rangers Fri, Apr 3 | TEX 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | TEX 3–CIN 5 | Miss |
| Phillies at Rockies Fri, Apr 3 | COL 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | COL 1–PHI 10 | Miss |
| Cubs at Guardians Fri, Apr 3 | CLE 52.9% · CHC 47.1% | CLE 4–CHC 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Pirates Fri, Apr 3 | PIT 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | PIT 5–BAL 4 | Hit |
| Rays at Twins Fri, Apr 3 | MIN 52.9% · TB 47.1% | MIN 10–TB 4 | Hit |
| Mariners at Angels Sat, Apr 4 | LAA 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | LAA 1–SEA 3 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Sat, Apr 4 | OAK 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | OAK 11–HOU 4 | Hit |
| Braves at Diamondbacks Sat, Apr 4 | ARI 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | ARI 0–ATL 2 | Miss |
| Mets at Giants Sat, Apr 4 | SF 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | SF 3–NYM 10 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Tigers Sat, Apr 4 | DET 54.9% · STL 45.1% | DET 11–STL 6 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox Sat, Apr 4 | CWS 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | CWS 6–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Brewers at Royals Sat, Apr 4 | KC 54.4% · MIL 45.6% | KC 2–MIL 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Pirates Sat, Apr 4 | PIT 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | PIT 3–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Athletics Sat, Apr 4 | OAK 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | OAK 0–HOU 11 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Nationals Sat, Apr 4 | WSH 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | WSH 5–LAD 10 | Miss |
| Padres at Red Sox Sat, Apr 4 | BOS 54.9% · SD 45.1% | BOS 2–SD 3 | Miss |
| Marlins at Yankees Sat, Apr 4 | NYY 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | NYY 9–MIA 7 | Hit |
| Reds at Rangers Sat, Apr 4 | TEX 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | TEX 0–CIN 2 | Miss |
| Brewers at Royals Sat, Apr 4 | KC 54.4% · MIL 45.6% | KC 8–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Rays at Twins Sat, Apr 4 | MIN 54.9% · TB 45.1% | MIN 1–TB 7 | Miss |
| Braves at Diamondbacks Sat, Apr 4 | ARI 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | ARI 2–ATL 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Rockies Sun, Apr 5 | COL 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | COL 1–PHI 2 | Miss |
| Mets at Giants Sun, Apr 5 | SF 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | SF 0–NYM 9 | Miss |
| Mariners at Angels Sun, Apr 5 | LAA 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | LAA 1–SEA 0 | Hit |
| Cubs at Guardians Sun, Apr 5 | CLE 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | CLE 0–CHC 1 | Miss |
| Marlins at Yankees Sun, Apr 5 | NYY 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | NYY 6–MIA 7 | Miss |
| Padres at Red Sox Sun, Apr 5 | BOS 54.9% · SD 45.1% | BOS 6–SD 8 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Nationals Sun, Apr 5 | WSH 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | WSH 6–LAD 8 | Miss |
| Orioles at Pirates Sun, Apr 5 | PIT 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | PIT 8–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox Sun, Apr 5 | CWS 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | CWS 3–TOR 0 | Hit |
| Brewers at Royals Sun, Apr 5 | KC 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | KC 5–MIL 8 | Miss |
| Rays at Twins Sun, Apr 5 | MIN 54.9% · TB 45.1% | MIN 1–TB 4 | Miss |
| Reds at Rangers Sun, Apr 5 | TEX 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | TEX 1–CIN 2 | Miss |
| Phillies at Rockies Sun, Apr 5 | COL 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | COL 4–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Mets at Giants Sun, Apr 5 | SF 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | SF 2–NYM 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Sun, Apr 5 | OAK 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | OAK 12–HOU 10 | Hit |
| Mariners at Angels Sun, Apr 5 | LAA 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | LAA 8–SEA 7 | Hit |
| Braves at Diamondbacks Sun, Apr 5 | ARI 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | ARI 6–ATL 5 | Hit |
| Cubs at Guardians Sun, Apr 5 | CLE 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | CLE 6–CHC 5 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Tigers Sun, Apr 5 | DET 54.9% · STL 45.1% | DET 3–STL 5 | Miss |
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