Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Twins:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 50% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: MIN 56% (+3)
Win probability movement
MIN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Twins defeated the Rays 10-4.
Our model predicted the Twins would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Twins and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Rays and was a contributing factor: Rays rest advantage (2 days rest) over Twins (1 day rest)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Twins (0 out) vs Rays (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Twins won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Twins
- Rest DaysFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Twins
Rays
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rays
No player data available
Twins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Twins has a 53% win probability, while Rays has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota.