Miami Marlins at New York Yankees
New York Yankees 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Yankees:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYY 50% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: NYY 56% (+3)
Win probability movement
NYY home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Yankees defeated the Marlins 8-2.
Our model predicted the Yankees would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Yankees and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Marlins and was a contributing factor: Marlins rest advantage (2 days rest) over Yankees (1 day rest)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Yankees won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Yankees
- Rest DaysFavors Miami Marlins
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Yankees
Marlins
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Marlins
Yankees
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Yankees has a 53% win probability, while Marlins has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York.