San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Red Sox:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Red Sox rest advantage (2 days rest) over Padres (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 54% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: BOS 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
BOS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Red Sox defeated the Padres 5-2.
Our model predicted the Red Sox would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Red Sox and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Red Sox and was a contributing factor: Red Sox rest advantage (2 days rest) over Padres (1 day rest)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Red Sox won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Red Sox
- Rest DaysFavors Boston Red Sox
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Padres
No player data available
Red Sox
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Red Sox has a 57% win probability, while Padres has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.