Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Guardians:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 50% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: CLE 56% (+3)
Win probability movement
CLE home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Guardians defeated the Cubs 4-1.
Our model predicted the Guardians would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Guardians and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Cubs and was a contributing factor: Cubs rest advantage (2 days rest) over Guardians (1 day rest)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Guardians won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Rest DaysFavors Chicago Cubs
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Guardians
Cubs
Odds by Source
| Source | Guardians | Cubs | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +105 | -1.5 | 6.5 |
| BetOnline.ag | +100 | -110 | +1.5 | 7.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cubs
Guardians
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Guardians has a 53% win probability, while Cubs has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.