MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-07-20 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 51% across 95 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 60% — final WSH 2–ARI 3
- Home Field Advantage (favors WSH)
- Rest Days (favors WSH)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins at Guardians Mon, Jul 20 | CLE 55% • MIN 45% | CLE 13–MIN 4 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Phillies Mon, Jul 20 | PHI 61% • LAD 39% | PHI 10–LAD 7 | Hit |
| Pirates at Yankees Mon, Jul 20 | NYY 49% • PIT 51% | NYY 8–PIT 5 | Miss |
| Rays at Blue Jays Mon, Jul 20 | TOR 56% • TB 44% | TOR 1–TB 7 | Miss |
| Orioles at Red Sox Mon, Jul 20 | BOS 55% • BAL 45% | BOS 6–BAL 5 | Hit |
| Padres at Braves Mon, Jul 20 | ATL 53% • SD 47% | ATL 3–SD 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Brewers Mon, Jul 20 | MIL 55% • NYM 45% | MIL 8–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Royals Mon, Jul 20 | KC 54% • SF 46% | KC 4–SF 3 | Hit |
| Tigers at Cubs Tue, Jul 21 | CHC 55% • DET 45% | CHC 6–DET 8 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Rangers Tue, Jul 21 | TEX 55% • CWS 45% | TEX 3–CWS 10 | Miss |
| Marlins at Astros Tue, Jul 21 | HOU 55% • MIA 45% | HOU 8–MIA 5 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rockies Tue, Jul 21 | COL 53% • WSH 47% | COL 3–WSH 7 | Miss |
| Athletics at Diamondbacks Tue, Jul 21 | ARI 54% • OAK 46% | ARI 2–OAK 5 | Miss |
| Reds at Mariners Tue, Jul 21 | SEA 54% • CIN 46% | SEA 8–CIN 0 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Angels Tue, Jul 21 | LAA 55% • STL 45% | LAA 3–STL 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Phillies Tue, Jul 21 | PHI 55% • LAD 45% | PHI 1–LAD 2 | Miss |
| Twins at Guardians Tue, Jul 21 | CLE 55% • MIN 45% | CLE 5–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Rays at Blue Jays Tue, Jul 21 | TOR 56% • TB 44% | TOR 2–TB 12 | Miss |
| Padres at Braves Tue, Jul 21 | ATL 53% • SD 47% | ATL 3–SD 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Brewers Tue, Jul 21 | MIL 55% • NYM 45% | MIL 0–NYM 4 | Miss |
| Giants at Royals Tue, Jul 21 | KC 54% • SF 46% | KC 3–SF 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Rangers Wed, Jul 22 | TEX 55% • CWS 45% | TEX 10–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Tigers at Cubs Wed, Jul 22 | CHC 55% • DET 45% | CHC 11–DET 2 | Hit |
| Marlins at Astros Wed, Jul 22 | HOU 55% • MIA 45% | HOU 5–MIA 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rockies Wed, Jul 22 | COL 53% • WSH 47% | COL 8–WSH 7 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Angels Wed, Jul 22 | LAA 55% • STL 45% | LAA 5–STL 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Mariners Wed, Jul 22 | SEA 54% • CIN 46% | SEA 2–CIN 4 | Miss |
| Athletics at Diamondbacks Wed, Jul 22 | ARI 54% • OAK 46% | ARI 6–OAK 5 | Hit |
| Pirates at Yankees Wed, Jul 22 | NYY 55% • PIT 45% | NYY 3–PIT 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Red Sox Wed, Jul 22 | BOS 55% • BAL 45% | BOS 6–BAL 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Royals Wed, Jul 22 | KC 54% • SF 46% | KC 5–SF 4 | Hit |
| Mets at Brewers Wed, Jul 22 | MIL 55% • NYM 45% | MIL 4–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rockies Wed, Jul 22 | COL 53% • WSH 47% | COL 0–WSH 8 | Miss |
| Reds at Mariners Wed, Jul 22 | SEA 54% • CIN 46% | SEA 3–CIN 5 | Miss |
| Athletics at Diamondbacks Wed, Jul 22 | ARI 54% • OAK 46% | ARI 15–OAK 5 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Angels Wed, Jul 22 | LAA 55% • STL 45% | LAA 0–STL 1 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Phillies Wed, Jul 22 | PHI 55% • LAD 45% | PHI 5–LAD 9 | Miss |
| Twins at Guardians Wed, Jul 22 | CLE 55% • MIN 45% | CLE 6–MIN 10 | Miss |
| Pirates at Yankees Wed, Jul 22 | NYY 55% • PIT 45% | NYY 2–PIT 0 | Hit |
| Rays at Blue Jays Wed, Jul 22 | TOR 56% • TB 44% | TOR 2–TB 4 | Miss |
| Orioles at Red Sox Wed, Jul 22 | BOS 55% • BAL 45% | BOS 1–BAL 5 | Miss |
| Padres at Braves Wed, Jul 22 | ATL 53% • SD 47% | ATL 7–SD 6 | Hit |
| Tigers at Cubs Thu, Jul 23 | CHC 55% • DET 45% | CHC 1–DET 5 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Rangers Thu, Jul 23 | TEX 55% • CWS 45% | TEX 2–CWS 4 | Miss |
| Marlins at Astros Thu, Jul 23 | HOU 55% • MIA 45% | HOU 5–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Braves Thu, Jul 23 | ATL 53% • SD 47% | ATL 6–SD 5 | Hit |
| Twins at Guardians Thu, Jul 23 | CLE 55% • MIN 45% | CLE 1–MIN 3 | Miss |
| Rays at Blue Jays Thu, Jul 23 | TOR 56% • TB 44% | TOR 3–TB 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Cardinals Thu, Jul 23 | STL 55% • ARI 45% | STL 6–ARI 10 | Miss |
| Royals at Tigers Thu, Jul 23 | DET 49% • KC 51% | DET 4–KC 3 | Miss |
| Rockies at Brewers Fri, Jul 24 | MIL 56% • COL 44% | MIL 2–COL 5 | Miss |
| Royals at Tigers Fri, Jul 24 | DET 55% • KC 45% | DET 2–KC 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Pirates Fri, Jul 24 | PIT 55% • CHC 45% | PIT 2–CHC 3 | Miss |
| Yankees at Phillies Fri, Jul 24 | PHI 57% • NYY 43% | PHI 0–NYY 1 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Nationals Fri, Jul 24 | WSH 60% • ARI 40% | WSH 2–ARI 3 | Miss |
| Braves at Orioles Fri, Jul 24 | BAL 54% • ATL 46% | BAL 6–ATL 7 | Miss |
| Guardians at Rays Fri, Jul 24 | TB 55% • CLE 45% | TB 11–CLE 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Mets Fri, Jul 24 | NYM 55% • LAD 45% | NYM 2–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Padres at Marlins Fri, Jul 24 | MIA 53% • SD 47% | MIA 2–SD 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Fri, Jul 24 | BOS 54% • TOR 46% | BOS 6–TOR 4 | Hit |
| Astros at Chicago White Sox Fri, Jul 24 | CWS 55% • HOU 45% | CWS 5–HOU 9 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rangers Sat, Jul 25 | TEX 56% • SEA 44% | TEX 5–SEA 4 | Hit |
| Athletics at Twins Sat, Jul 25 | MIN 53% • OAK 47% | MIN 0–OAK 2 | Miss |
| Reds at Cardinals Sat, Jul 25 | STL 53% • CIN 47% | STL 2–CIN 4 | Miss |
| Angels at Giants Sat, Jul 25 | SF 56% • LAA 44% | SF 7–LAA 6 | Hit |
| Royals at Tigers Sat, Jul 25 | DET 55% • KC 45% | DET 2–KC 3 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Nationals Sat, Jul 25 | WSH 58% • ARI 42% | WSH 5–ARI 3 | Hit |
| Angels at Giants Sat, Jul 25 | SF 56% • LAA 44% | SF 9–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Sat, Jul 25 | BOS 53% • TOR 47% | BOS 0–TOR 6 | Miss |
| Padres at Marlins Sat, Jul 25 | MIA 53% • SD 47% | MIA 2–SD 7 | Miss |
| Yankees at Phillies Sat, Jul 25 | PHI 55% • NYY 45% | PHI 1–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Guardians at Rays Sat, Jul 25 | TB 55% • CLE 45% | TB 3–CLE 0 | Hit |
| Cubs at Pirates Sat, Jul 25 | PIT 55% • CHC 45% | PIT 0–CHC 11 | Miss |
| Braves at Orioles Sat, Jul 25 | BAL 54% • ATL 46% | BAL 3–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Brewers Sat, Jul 25 | MIL 56% • COL 44% | MIL 8–COL 5 | Hit |
| Athletics at Twins Sat, Jul 25 | MIN 55% • OAK 45% | MIN 2–OAK 0 | Hit |
| Astros at Chicago White Sox Sat, Jul 25 | CWS 55% • HOU 45% | CWS 1–HOU 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rangers Sat, Jul 25 | TEX 56% • SEA 44% | TEX 7–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Mets Sat, Jul 25 | NYM 55% • LAD 45% | NYM 3–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Reds at Cardinals Sat, Jul 25 | STL 54% • CIN 46% | STL 7–CIN 0 | Hit |
| Guardians at Rays Sun, Jul 26 | TB 55% • CLE 45% | TB 1–CLE 0 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Nationals Sun, Jul 26 | WSH 58% • ARI 42% | WSH 10–ARI 7 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Sun, Jul 26 | BOS 53% • TOR 47% | BOS 6–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Orioles Sun, Jul 26 | BAL 54% • ATL 46% | BAL 2–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Cubs at Pirates Sun, Jul 26 | PIT 55% • CHC 45% | PIT 8–CHC 7 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Mets Sun, Jul 26 | NYM 55% • LAD 45% | NYM 8–LAD 3 | Hit |
| Royals at Tigers Sun, Jul 26 | DET 55% • KC 45% | DET 4–KC 5 | Miss |
| Padres at Marlins Sun, Jul 26 | MIA 53% • SD 47% | MIA 3–SD 5 | Miss |
| Athletics at Twins Sun, Jul 26 | MIN 55% • OAK 45% | MIN 11–OAK 8 | Hit |
| Astros at Chicago White Sox Sun, Jul 26 | CWS 55% • HOU 45% | CWS 12–HOU 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Brewers Sun, Jul 26 | MIL 56% • COL 44% | MIL 11–COL 2 | Hit |
| Reds at Cardinals Sun, Jul 26 | STL 54% • CIN 46% | STL 3–CIN 5 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rangers Sun, Jul 26 | TEX 56% • SEA 44% | TEX 4–SEA 6 | Miss |
| Angels at Giants Sun, Jul 26 | SF 56% • LAA 44% | SF 3–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Phillies Sun, Jul 26 | PHI 55% • NYY 45% | PHI 11–NYY 4 | Hit |