MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-06-15 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 57% across 89 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 58% — final WSH 2–KC 6
- Home Field Advantage (favors WSH)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins at Phillies Mon, Jun 15 | PHI 54% • MIA 46% | PHI 7–MIA 0 | Hit |
| Royals at Nationals Mon, Jun 15 | WSH 58% • KC 42% | WSH 7–KC 3 | Hit |
| Mets at Reds Mon, Jun 15 | CIN 55% • NYM 45% | CIN 12–NYM 0 | Hit |
| Padres at Cardinals Mon, Jun 15 | STL 52% • SD 48% | STL 3–SD 0 | Hit |
| Rockies at Cubs Tue, Jun 16 | CHC 55% • COL 45% | CHC 5–COL 4 | Hit |
| Twins at Rangers Tue, Jun 16 | TEX 55% • MIN 45% | TEX 2–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Tigers at Astros Tue, Jun 16 | HOU 54% • DET 46% | HOU 3–DET 9 | Miss |
| Angels at Diamondbacks Tue, Jun 16 | ARI 55% • LAA 45% | ARI 4–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Athletics Tue, Jun 16 | OAK 54% • PIT 46% | OAK 11–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Rays at Dodgers Tue, Jun 16 | LAD 55% • TB 45% | LAD 4–TB 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Phillies Tue, Jun 16 | PHI 54% • MIA 46% | PHI 8–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Nationals Tue, Jun 16 | WSH 58% • KC 42% | WSH 6–KC 4 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Tue, Jun 16 | BOS 51% • TOR 49% | BOS 1–TOR 6 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Yankees Tue, Jun 16 | NYY 55% • CWS 45% | NYY 12–CWS 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Reds Tue, Jun 16 | CIN 55% • NYM 45% | CIN 5–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Braves Tue, Jun 16 | ATL 54% • SF 46% | ATL 2–SF 7 | Miss |
| Guardians at Brewers Tue, Jun 16 | MIL 56% • CLE 44% | MIL 2–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Padres at Cardinals Tue, Jun 16 | STL 52% • SD 48% | STL 3–SD 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Cubs Wed, Jun 17 | CHC 55% • COL 45% | CHC 2–COL 5 | Miss |
| Twins at Rangers Wed, Jun 17 | TEX 55% • MIN 45% | TEX 2–MIN 12 | Miss |
| Tigers at Astros Wed, Jun 17 | HOU 55% • DET 45% | HOU 4–DET 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Mariners Wed, Jun 17 | SEA 55% • BAL 45% | SEA 3–BAL 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Diamondbacks Wed, Jun 17 | ARI 55% • LAA 45% | ARI 0–LAA 7 | Miss |
| Pirates at Athletics Wed, Jun 17 | OAK 54% • PIT 46% | OAK 5–PIT 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Dodgers Wed, Jun 17 | LAD 55% • TB 45% | LAD 1–TB 0 | Hit |
| Mets at Reds Wed, Jun 17 | CIN 55% • NYM 45% | CIN 1–NYM 9 | Miss |
| Royals at Nationals Wed, Jun 17 | WSH 58% • KC 42% | WSH 2–KC 6 | Miss |
| Marlins at Phillies Wed, Jun 17 | PHI 54% • MIA 46% | PHI 4–MIA 12 | Miss |
| Tigers at Astros Wed, Jun 17 | HOU 55% • DET 45% | HOU 4–DET 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Cardinals Wed, Jun 17 | STL 52% • SD 48% | STL 1–SD 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Dodgers Wed, Jun 17 | LAD 55% • TB 45% | LAD 5–TB 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Diamondbacks Wed, Jun 17 | ARI 55% • LAA 45% | ARI 8–LAA 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Wed, Jun 17 | BOS 53% • TOR 47% | BOS 0–TOR 3 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Yankees Wed, Jun 17 | NYY 55% • CWS 45% | NYY 10–CWS 5 | Hit |
| Giants at Braves Wed, Jun 17 | ATL 54% • SF 46% | ATL 5–SF 7 | Miss |
| Guardians at Brewers Wed, Jun 17 | MIL 56% • CLE 44% | MIL 9–CLE 4 | Hit |
| Rockies at Cubs Thu, Jun 18 | CHC 55% • COL 45% | CHC 8–COL 6 | Hit |
| Orioles at Mariners Thu, Jun 18 | SEA 55% • BAL 45% | SEA 3–BAL 5 | Miss |
| Pirates at Athletics Thu, Jun 18 | OAK 54% • PIT 46% | OAK 4–PIT 12 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Thu, Jun 18 | BOS 53% • TOR 47% | BOS 3–TOR 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Brewers Thu, Jun 18 | MIL 56% • CLE 44% | MIL 2–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Rangers Thu, Jun 18 | TEX 55% • MIN 45% | TEX 3–MIN 9 | Miss |
| Orioles at Mariners Thu, Jun 18 | SEA 55% • BAL 45% | SEA 3–BAL 0 | Hit |
| Mets at Phillies Thu, Jun 18 | PHI 55% • NYM 45% | PHI 4–NYM 6 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Yankees Thu, Jun 18 | NYY 55% • CWS 45% | NYY 1–CWS 5 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Royals Thu, Jun 18 | KC 55% • STL 45% | KC 14–STL 6 | Hit |
| Angels at Athletics Fri, Jun 19 | OAK 55% • LAA 45% | OAK 5–LAA 0 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Cubs Fri, Jun 19 | CHC 54% • TOR 46% | CHC 16–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Tigers Fri, Jun 19 | DET 62% • CWS 38% | DET 4–CWS 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Yankees Fri, Jun 19 | NYY 53% • CIN 47% | NYY 5–CIN 0 | Hit |
| Giants at Marlins Fri, Jun 19 | MIA 56% • SF 44% | MIA 4–SF 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rays Fri, Jun 19 | TB 53% • WSH 47% | TB 5–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Braves Fri, Jun 19 | ATL 55% • MIL 45% | ATL 3–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Rangers Sat, Jun 20 | TEX 52% • SD 48% | TEX 9–SD 7 | Hit |
| Guardians at Astros Sat, Jun 20 | HOU 56% • CLE 44% | HOU 9–CLE 3 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Royals Sat, Jun 20 | KC 55% • STL 45% | KC 6–STL 5 | Hit |
| Pirates at Rockies Sat, Jun 20 | COL 56% • PIT 44% | COL 4–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Angels at Athletics Sat, Jun 20 | OAK 55% • LAA 45% | OAK 12–LAA 11 | Hit |
| Twins at Diamondbacks Sat, Jun 20 | ARI 56% • MIN 44% | ARI 9–MIN 5 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Mariners Sat, Jun 20 | SEA 55% • BOS 45% | SEA 2–BOS 6 | Miss |
| Orioles at Dodgers Sat, Jun 20 | LAD 57% • BAL 43% | LAD 6–BAL 5 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Tigers Sat, Jun 20 | DET 55% • CWS 45% | DET 4–CWS 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Yankees Sat, Jun 20 | NYY 55% • CIN 45% | NYY 2–CIN 10 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Cubs Sat, Jun 20 | CHC 54% • TOR 46% | CHC 6–TOR 8 | Miss |
| Padres at Rangers Sat, Jun 20 | TEX 53% • SD 47% | TEX 4–SD 6 | Miss |
| Brewers at Braves Sat, Jun 20 | ATL 53% • MIL 47% | ATL 4–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Marlins Sat, Jun 20 | MIA 54% • SF 46% | MIA 6–SF 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rays Sat, Jun 20 | TB 53% • WSH 47% | TB 3–WSH 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Astros Sat, Jun 20 | HOU 54% • CLE 46% | HOU 1–CLE 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Phillies Sat, Jun 20 | PHI 55% • NYM 45% | PHI 15–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Rockies Sun, Jun 21 | COL 55% • PIT 45% | COL 2–PIT 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Athletics Sun, Jun 21 | OAK 55% • LAA 45% | OAK 0–LAA 7 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Mariners Sun, Jun 21 | SEA 55% • BOS 45% | SEA 1–BOS 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Dodgers Sun, Jun 21 | LAD 55% • BAL 45% | LAD 2–BAL 3 | Miss |
| Twins at Diamondbacks Sun, Jun 21 | ARI 54% • MIN 46% | ARI 8–MIN 16 | Miss |
| Brewers at Braves Sun, Jun 21 | ATL 53% • MIL 47% | ATL 4–MIL 9 | Miss |
| Reds at Yankees Sun, Jun 21 | NYY 55% • CIN 45% | NYY 1–CIN 4 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Tigers Sun, Jun 21 | DET 55% • CWS 45% | DET 5–CWS 4 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rays Sun, Jun 21 | TB 53% • WSH 47% | TB 4–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Marlins Sun, Jun 21 | MIA 54% • SF 46% | MIA 2–SF 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Royals Sun, Jun 21 | KC 55% • STL 45% | KC 10–STL 12 | Miss |
| Guardians at Astros Sun, Jun 21 | HOU 54% • CLE 46% | HOU 2–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Padres at Rangers Sun, Jun 21 | TEX 53% • SD 47% | TEX 4–SD 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Rockies Sun, Jun 21 | COL 55% • PIT 45% | COL 6–PIT 8 | Miss |
| Twins at Diamondbacks Sun, Jun 21 | ARI 54% • MIN 46% | ARI 2–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Angels at Athletics Sun, Jun 21 | OAK 55% • LAA 45% | OAK 7–LAA 9 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Mariners Sun, Jun 21 | SEA 55% • BOS 45% | SEA 3–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Dodgers Sun, Jun 21 | LAD 55% • BAL 45% | LAD 1–BAL 12 | Miss |
| Mets at Phillies Sun, Jun 21 | PHI 55% • NYM 45% | PHI 6–NYM 2 | Hit |