NHL report card: week of 2026-04-27 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
50.0%
hit rate
0.263
Brier score
8 of 16 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Canadiens at LightningTBL 59.8% pre-game — final TBL 1–MTL 2
- Canadiens at LightningTBL 59.8% pre-game — final TBL 2–MTL 3
- Golden Knights at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 58.4% pre-game — final UTA 1–VGK 5
- Golden Knights at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 58.4% pre-game — final UTA 4–VGK 5
- Sabres at BruinsBOS 56.3% pre-game — final BOS 1–BUF 4
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Stars at WildMIN 56.3% pre-game — final MIN 5–DAL 2
- Penguins at FlyersPHI 56.3% pre-game — final PHI 1–PIT 0
- Flyers at PenguinsPIT 56.3% pre-game — final PIT 3–PHI 2
- Ducks at OilersEDM 56.0% pre-game — final EDM 4–ANA 1
- Oilers at DucksANA 54.9% pre-game — final ANA 5–EDM 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers at Ducks Mon, Apr 27 | ANA 54.9% · EDM 45.1% | ANA 4–EDM 3 | Hit |
| Flyers at Penguins Mon, Apr 27 | PIT 56.3% · PHI 43.7% | PIT 3–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club Tue, Apr 28 | UTA 58.4% · VGK 41.6% | UTA 4–VGK 5 | Miss |
| Bruins at Sabres Tue, Apr 28 | BUF 56.3% · BOS 43.7% | BUF 1–BOS 2 | Miss |
| Wild at Stars Wed, Apr 29 | DAL 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | DAL 2–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Ducks at Oilers Wed, Apr 29 | EDM 56.0% · ANA 44.0% | EDM 4–ANA 1 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Lightning Wed, Apr 29 | TBL 59.8% · MTL 40.2% | TBL 2–MTL 3 | Miss |
| Penguins at Flyers Wed, Apr 29 | PHI 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | PHI 1–PIT 0 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Golden Knights Thu, Apr 30 | VGK 54.3% · UTA 45.7% | VGK 5–UTA 4 | Hit |
| Stars at Wild Thu, Apr 30 | MIN 56.3% · DAL 43.7% | MIN 5–DAL 2 | Hit |
| Oilers at Ducks Fri, May 1 | ANA 54.9% · EDM 45.1% | ANA 5–EDM 2 | Hit |
| Lightning at Canadiens Fri, May 1 | MTL 52.8% · TBL 47.2% | MTL 0–TBL 1 | Miss |
| Sabres at Bruins Fri, May 1 | BOS 56.3% · BUF 43.7% | BOS 1–BUF 4 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club Sat, May 2 | UTA 58.4% · VGK 41.6% | UTA 1–VGK 5 | Miss |
| Flyers at Hurricanes Sun, May 3 | CAR 54.6% · PHI 45.4% | CAR 3–PHI 0 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Lightning Sun, May 3 | TBL 59.8% · MTL 40.2% | TBL 1–MTL 2 | Miss |
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