Utah Utah Hockey Club at Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Golden Knights:
- Home Field Advantage. Golden Knights are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: VGK 50% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: VGK 55% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: VGK 55% (+1)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: VGK 54% (0)
Win probability movement
VGK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Golden Knights defeated the Utah Hockey Club 5-4.
Our model predicted the Golden Knights would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Golden Knights and was a notable factor: Golden Knights are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Utah Hockey Club and was a contributing factor: Utah Hockey Club defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Golden Knights (3.1 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar form: Golden Knights (29-20) vs Utah Hockey Club (33-25)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Golden Knights won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Utah Utah Hockey Club
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Utah Hockey Club
Golden Knights
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Golden Knights has a 54% win probability, while Utah Hockey Club has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.