NHL report card: week of 2026-04-20 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
54.2%
hit rate
0.246
Brier score
13 of 24 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Sabres at BruinsBOS 56.3% pre-game — final BOS 1–BUF 6
- Penguins at FlyersPHI 56.3% pre-game — final PHI 2–PIT 4
- Hurricanes at SenatorsOTT 56.3% pre-game — final OTT 2–CAR 4
- Hurricanes at SenatorsOTT 56.3% pre-game — final OTT 1–CAR 2
- Sabres at BruinsBOS 56.3% pre-game — final BOS 1–BUF 3
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Kings at AvalancheCOL 66.0% pre-game — final COL 2–LAK 1
- Canadiens at LightningTBL 59.8% pre-game — final TBL 3–MTL 2
- Golden Knights at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 58.4% pre-game — final UTA 4–VGK 2
- Stars at WildMIN 56.3% pre-game — final MIN 3–DAL 2
- Penguins at FlyersPHI 56.3% pre-game — final PHI 5–PIT 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Hockey Club at Golden Knights Mon, Apr 20 | VGK 53.4% · UTA 46.6% | VGK 4–UTA 2 | Hit |
| Flyers at Penguins Mon, Apr 20 | PIT 56.3% · PHI 43.7% | PIT 0–PHI 3 | Miss |
| Senators at Hurricanes Mon, Apr 20 | CAR 56.3% · OTT 43.7% | CAR 3–OTT 2 | Hit |
| Wild at Stars Tue, Apr 21 | DAL 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | DAL 4–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Ducks at Oilers Tue, Apr 21 | EDM 56.0% · ANA 44.0% | EDM 4–ANA 3 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Lightning Tue, Apr 21 | TBL 59.8% · MTL 40.2% | TBL 3–MTL 2 | Hit |
| Bruins at Sabres Tue, Apr 21 | BUF 56.3% · BOS 43.7% | BUF 2–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Golden Knights Wed, Apr 22 | VGK 54.3% · UTA 45.7% | VGK 2–UTA 3 | Miss |
| Kings at Avalanche Wed, Apr 22 | COL 66.0% · LAK 34.1% | COL 2–LAK 1 | Hit |
| Penguins at Flyers Wed, Apr 22 | PHI 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | PHI 5–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Stars at Wild Thu, Apr 23 | MIN 56.3% · DAL 43.7% | MIN 3–DAL 4 | Miss |
| Ducks at Oilers Thu, Apr 23 | EDM 56.0% · ANA 44.0% | EDM 4–ANA 6 | Miss |
| Sabres at Bruins Thu, Apr 23 | BOS 56.3% · BUF 43.7% | BOS 1–BUF 3 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Senators Thu, Apr 23 | OTT 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | OTT 1–CAR 2 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Kings Fri, Apr 24 | LAK 46.2% · COL 53.8% | LAK 2–COL 4 | Hit |
| Lightning at Canadiens Fri, Apr 24 | MTL 52.8% · TBL 47.2% | MTL 3–TBL 2 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club Sat, Apr 25 | UTA 58.4% · VGK 41.6% | UTA 4–VGK 2 | Hit |
| Oilers at Ducks Sat, Apr 25 | ANA 54.9% · EDM 45.1% | ANA 7–EDM 4 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Senators Sat, Apr 25 | OTT 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | OTT 2–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Stars at Wild Sat, Apr 25 | MIN 56.3% · DAL 43.7% | MIN 3–DAL 2 | Hit |
| Penguins at Flyers Sun, Apr 26 | PHI 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | PHI 2–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Sabres at Bruins Sun, Apr 26 | BOS 56.3% · BUF 43.7% | BOS 1–BUF 6 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Kings Sun, Apr 26 | LAK 46.2% · COL 53.8% | LAK 1–COL 5 | Hit |
| Lightning at Canadiens Sun, Apr 26 | MTL 52.8% · TBL 47.2% | MTL 2–TBL 3 | Miss |
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