Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Canadiens:
- Home Field Advantage. Canadiens are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MTL 49% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MTL 55% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MTL 54% (+1)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MTL 53% (0)
Win probability movement
MTL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Canadiens defeated the Lightning 3-2.
Our model predicted the Canadiens would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Canadiens and was a notable factor: Canadiens are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Canadiens (3.3 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning (38-18) in better form than Canadiens (33-18)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Canadiens won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Lightning
Canadiens
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Canadiens has a 53% win probability, while Lightning has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC.