Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim Ducks 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Ducks:
- Home Field Advantage. Ducks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ANA 51% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ANA 55% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ANA 54% (−1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ANA 55% (0)
Win probability movement
ANA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Ducks defeated the Oilers 7-4.
Our model predicted the Ducks would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Ducks and was a contributing factor: Ducks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (3.3 vs 3.5 PPG)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar form: Ducks (35-24) vs Oilers (30-25)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Ducks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Anaheim Ducks
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Oilers
Ducks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Ducks has a 55% win probability, while Oilers has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Honda Center in Anaheim, CA.