Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning
NHLregular • 2026-2027 Season
completed
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Canadiens (away)
Lightning (home)
40%
Win probability
60%
0
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0
Lightning won 3-2
Lightning won in a close game
Prediction CorrectWe predicted Lightning at 60%
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
MTL
TBL
Home Field Advantage
Defensive Efficiency
Recent Form
Offensive Efficiency
Favours MTL|Favours TBL
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Model version: 1.0.0 • Calculated: 4/21/2026, 8:50:00 AM
Key Players
Canadiens
Jakub DobesG
Jacob FowlerG
Kaapo KahkonenG
Sam MontembeaultG
Nick SuzukiC
Lightning
Kyle KoninG
Jonas JohanssonG
Andrei VasilevskiyG
Harrison MeneghinG
Brayden PointC
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 60% win probability, while Canadiens has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.