NHL report card: week of 2026-02-23 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
40.0%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
2 of 5 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Jets at CanucksVAN 54.7% pre-game — final VAN 2–WPG 3
- Golden Knights at KingsLAK 54.2% pre-game — final LAK 4–VGK 6
- Avalanche at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 53.3% pre-game — final UTA 2–COL 4
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Maple Leafs at LightningTBL 57.0% pre-game — final TBL 4–TOR 2
- Oilers at DucksANA 55.3% pre-game — final ANA 6–EDM 5
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs at Lightning Thu, Feb 26 | TBL 57.0% · TOR 43.0% | TBL 4–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Avalanche at Utah Hockey Club Thu, Feb 26 | UTA 53.3% · COL 46.7% | UTA 2–COL 4 | Miss |
| Jets at Canucks Thu, Feb 26 | VAN 54.7% · WPG 45.3% | VAN 2–WPG 3 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Kings Thu, Feb 26 | LAK 54.2% · VGK 45.8% | LAK 4–VGK 6 | Miss |
| Oilers at Ducks Thu, Feb 26 | ANA 55.3% · EDM 44.7% | ANA 6–EDM 5 | Hit |
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