Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Lightning:
- Home Field Advantage. Tampa Bay Lightning are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14) in better form than Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TBL 54% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TBL 55% (−2)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Maple Leafs 4-2.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Tampa Bay Lightning are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14) in better form than Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar defensive efficiency (0.0 vs 0.0 YPP allowed)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
2 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
4 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Lightning
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 57% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
Venue information is not yet available for this game.